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Impact of Future Development Scenario Selection on Landscape Ecological Risk in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhu, Kangwen2; He, Jun3; Zhang, Lanxin1; Song, Dan2; Wu, Longjiang4; Liu, Yaqun5; Zhang, Sheng2
刊名LAND
出版日期2022-07-01
卷号11期号:7页码:18
关键词PLUS model scenario simulation landscape ecological risk ecological grid Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone
DOI10.3390/land11070964
通讯作者Zhang, Sheng(zs_hky@163.com)
英文摘要The management of regional eco-environmental risks is the key to promoting regional economic sustainability from the macro level, and accurate evaluation of the evolutionary trends of regional ecological risk in the future is of high importance. In order to clearly identify the possible impact of future development scenario selection for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone (C-C E Zone) on the evolution of landscape ecological risk (LER), we introduced the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate land use data for the C-C E Zone from 2030 to 2050 for two scenarios: natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP). Based on the ecological grid and landscape ecological risk index (LERI) model, the landscape ecological risk (LER) evolutionary trends seen in the C-C E Zone from 2000 to 2050 were analyzed and identified. The results showed that: (1) The PLUS model can obtain high-precision simulation results in the C-C E Zone. In the future, the currently increasing rate of land being used for construction will be reduced, the declining rates of forest and cultivated land area will also be reduced, and the amount of land being used for various purposes will remain stable going into the future. (2) This study found that the optimal size of the ecological grid in the LERI calculation of the mountainous area was 4 x 4 km. Additionally, the mean values of the LERI in 2030, 2040, and 2050 were 0.1612, 0.1628, and 0.1636 for ND and 0.1612, 0.1618, and 0.1620 for EP. (3) The hot spot analysis results showed that an area of about 49,700 km(2) in the C-C E Zone from 2000 to 2050 belongs to high agglomeration of LER. (4) Since 2010, the proportions of high and extremely high risk levels have continued to increase, but under the EP scenario, the high and extremely high risk levels in 2040 and 2050 decreased from 14.36% and 6.66% to 14.33% and 6.43%. Regional analysis showed that the high and extremely high risk levels in most regions increased over 2010-2050. (5) Under the ND scenario, the proportions of grids with decreased, unchanged, and increased risk levels were 15.13%, 81.48%, and 3.39% for 2000-2010 and 0.54%, 94.75%, and 4.71% for 2040-2050. These trends indicated that the proportion of grids with changed risk levels gradually decreased going into the future. This study analyzed the evolutionary trends of LER at the C-C E Zone for the ND and EP scenario. On the whole, the LER for the C-C E Zone showed an upward trend, and the EP scenario was conducive to reducing the risk. These research results can serve as a valuable data reference set for regional landscape optimization and risk prevention and control.
WOS关键词RIVER
资助项目Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Ecological Environment Bureau[CQEE-21C00364] ; Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Ecological Environment Bureau[CQEE2022-STHBZZ118] ; Special Project of Performance Incentive and Guidance for Scientific Research Institutions of Chongqing[Cqhky2021jxjl00001] ; Key Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of Chongqing Municipal Commission of Education[22SKGH569]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000834374900001
出版者MDPI
资助机构Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Ecological Environment Bureau ; Special Project of Performance Incentive and Guidance for Scientific Research Institutions of Chongqing ; Key Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of Chongqing Municipal Commission of Education
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/181744]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zhang, Sheng
作者单位1.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Environm Sci, Southwest Branch, Chongqing Acad Ecol & Environm Sci, Chongqing 401147, Peoples R China
3.Chongqing Bur Geol & Mineral Explorat, 107 Geol Team, Chongqing 401120, Peoples R China
4.Chongqing Technol & Business Univ, Sch Environm & Resources, Chongqing 400060, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhu, Kangwen,He, Jun,Zhang, Lanxin,et al. Impact of Future Development Scenario Selection on Landscape Ecological Risk in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone[J]. LAND,2022,11(7):18.
APA Zhu, Kangwen.,He, Jun.,Zhang, Lanxin.,Song, Dan.,Wu, Longjiang.,...&Zhang, Sheng.(2022).Impact of Future Development Scenario Selection on Landscape Ecological Risk in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone.LAND,11(7),18.
MLA Zhu, Kangwen,et al."Impact of Future Development Scenario Selection on Landscape Ecological Risk in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone".LAND 11.7(2022):18.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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