Multi-scenario simulation of urban land change in Shanghai by random forest and CA-Markov model
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhou, Liang1,2,3,4; Dang, Xuewei1,3,4; Sun, Qinke1,3,4; Wang, Shaohua5 |
| 刊名 | SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 55页码:10 |
| 关键词 | Multi-scenario simulation Urban land change Random forest CA-Markov Shanghai |
| ISSN号 | 2210-6707 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102045 |
| 通讯作者 | Dang, Xuewei(ddangxw@163.com) |
| 英文摘要 | The multi-scenario simulation of urban land can effectively reveal the characteristics and trends of changes in urban space and the contradictions of land use in urban sustainable development. By designing a model based on the random forest algorithm and CA-Markov model, we simulated the evolution of urban space in Shanghai from 2015 to 2030 under two distinct scenarios - unconstrained development and development with planning intervention. Results of model validation indicate that the model accurately simulates urban land in 2015. In Shanghai, important factors affecting urban development are population, GDP and distance to subways. Under the unconstrained scenario, urban areas in Shanghai are predicted to increase by 157.79 km(2) between 2015 and 2030, and the spatial expansion of urban areas follows a concentric pattern. Meanwhile, under the scenario with planning intervention, urban expansion is at a lower speed, and more compact because of constraints of ecological, cultivated and cultural protection, and urban areas are predicted to increase by 95.46 km(2) in 2030 compared with 2015. We observe a similar concentric pattern, although significantly smaller in magnitude, in spatial expansion under this scenario. The results show that urban development will be more sustainable under the constraints of ecological and cultivated protection. |
| WOS关键词 | CELLULAR-AUTOMATA MODELS ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; SAN-FRANCISCO ; EXPANSION ; GROWTH ; URBANIZATION ; CHAIN ; INTEGRATION ; PREDICTION ; CHINA |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701173] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41961027] ; Special Fund for Strategic Pilot Technology of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040502] ; Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education[17YJCZH268] ; Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education[201806] |
| WOS研究方向 | Construction & Building Technology ; Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Energy & Fuels |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000516721000031 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Special Fund for Strategic Pilot Technology of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/132532]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Dang, Xuewei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Lanzhou Jiaotong Univ, Fac Geomat, 88 Anning West Rd, Lanzhou 730070, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Natl Local Joint Engn Res Ctr Technol & Applicat, Lanzhou 730070, Peoples R China 4.Gansu Prov Engn Lab Natl Geog State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070, Peoples R China 5.Arizona State Univ, Sch Geog Sci & Urban Planning, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhou, Liang,Dang, Xuewei,Sun, Qinke,et al. Multi-scenario simulation of urban land change in Shanghai by random forest and CA-Markov model[J]. SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY,2020,55:10. |
| APA | Zhou, Liang,Dang, Xuewei,Sun, Qinke,&Wang, Shaohua.(2020).Multi-scenario simulation of urban land change in Shanghai by random forest and CA-Markov model.SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY,55,10. |
| MLA | Zhou, Liang,et al."Multi-scenario simulation of urban land change in Shanghai by random forest and CA-Markov model".SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY 55(2020):10. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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