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Spatiotemporal variations in the incidence of bacillary dysentery and long-term effects associated with meteorological and socioeconomic factors in China from 2013 to 2017

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Xiangxue1,2,3; Gu, Xinchen4; Wang, Li5,6; Zhou, Yuke7; Huang, Zhentao8; Xu, Chengdong3; Cheng, Changxiu1,2
刊名SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
出版日期2021-02-10
卷号755页码:8
关键词Spatiotemporal heterogeneity Bacillary dysentery Northern and southern China Bayesian space-time hierarchy model GeoDetector
ISSN号0048-9697
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142626
通讯作者Xu, Chengdong(xucd@lreis.ac.cn) ; Cheng, Changxiu(chengcx@bnu.edu.cn)
英文摘要Bacillary dysentery is a global public health problem that exhibits manifest spatiotemporal heterogeneity. However, long-term variations and regional determinant factors remain unclear. In this study, the Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was used to identify the long-term spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the incidence of bacillary dysentery and quantify the associations of meteorological factors with the incidence of bacillary dysentery in northern and southern China from 2013 to 2017. GeoDetector was used to quantify the determinant powers of socioeconomic factors in the two regions. The results showed that the incidence of bacillary dysentery peaked in summer (June to August), indicating temporal seasonality. Geographically, the hot spots (high-risk areas) were distributed in northwestern China (Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia) and northern China (including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei), whereas the cold spots (low-risk areas) were concentrated in southeastern China (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong). Moreover, significant regional differences were found among the meteorological and socioeconomic factors. Average temperature was the dominant meteorological factor in both northern and southern China. In northern and southern China, a 1 degrees C increase in the average temperature led to an increase of 1.01% and 4.26% in bacillary dysentery risk, respectively. The dominant socioeconomic factors in northern and southern China were per capita gross domestic product and the number of health technicians, with q statistic values of 0.81 and 0.49, respectively. These findings suggest that hot, moist, and overcrowded environments or poor health conditions increase the risk of bacillary dysentery. This study provides suggestions and serves as a basis for surveillance efforts. Further, the suggestions may aid in the control of bacillary dysentery and in the implementation of disease prevention policies. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
WOS关键词AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE ; CHILDHOOD DIARRHEA ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RISK ; SHIGELLOSIS ; NORTHERN ; DISEASE ; VARIABLES ; IMPACTS ; WEATHER
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41901331] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971357] ; Innovation Project of LREIS[O88RA205YA] ; Henan Postdoctoral Science Foundation[CJ3050A0670196] ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000600786700050
出版者ELSEVIER
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Innovation Project of LREIS ; Henan Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/136606]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Xu, Chengdong; Cheng, Changxiu
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Shihezi Univ, Coll Water & Architectural Engn, Shihezi 832003, Peoples R China
5.Henan Univ, Coll Environm & Planning, Kaifeng 475001, Peoples R China
6.Henan Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geospatial Technol Middle & Lower Yellow, Kaifeng 475001, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
8.China Univ Petr, Coll Oceanog & Space Informat, Qingdao 266580, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Xiangxue,Gu, Xinchen,Wang, Li,et al. Spatiotemporal variations in the incidence of bacillary dysentery and long-term effects associated with meteorological and socioeconomic factors in China from 2013 to 2017[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2021,755:8.
APA Zhang, Xiangxue.,Gu, Xinchen.,Wang, Li.,Zhou, Yuke.,Huang, Zhentao.,...&Cheng, Changxiu.(2021).Spatiotemporal variations in the incidence of bacillary dysentery and long-term effects associated with meteorological and socioeconomic factors in China from 2013 to 2017.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,755,8.
MLA Zhang, Xiangxue,et al."Spatiotemporal variations in the incidence of bacillary dysentery and long-term effects associated with meteorological and socioeconomic factors in China from 2013 to 2017".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 755(2021):8.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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