Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xi, Wang1,2; Pei, Tao1,2,3; Liu, Qiyong4; Song, Ci1,2; Liu, Yaxi1,2; Chen, Xiao1,2; Ma, Jia5; Zhang, Zhixin6 |
| 刊名 | IEEE ACCESS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020 |
| 卷号 | 8页码:216752-216761 |
| 关键词 | Urban areas COVID-19 Indexes Web and internet services Time series analysis Correlation Sociology COVID-19 control measures cross correlation human mobility influencing factors |
| ISSN号 | 2169-3536 |
| DOI | 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3038995 |
| 通讯作者 | Pei, Tao(peit@lreis.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The first wave of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in China showed there was a lag between the reduction in human mobility and the decline in COVID-19 transmission and this lag was different in cities. A prolonged lag would cause public panic and reflect the inefficiency of control measures. This study aims to quantify this time-lag effect and reveal its influencing socio-demographic and environmental factors, which is helpful to policymaking in controlling COVID-19 and other potential infectious diseases in the future. We combined city-level mobility index and new case time series for 80 most affected cities in China from Jan 17 to Feb 29, 2020. Cross correlation analysis and spatial autoregressive model were used to estimate the lag length and determine influencing factors behind it, respectively. The results show that mobility is strongly correlated with COVID-19 transmission in most cities with lags of 10 days (interquartile range 8 - 11 days) and correlation coefficients of 0.68 +/- 0.12. This time-lag is consistent with the incubation period plus time for reporting. Cities with a shorter lag appear to have a shorter epidemic duration. This lag is shorter in cities with larger volume of population flow from Wuhan, higher designated hospitals density and urban road density while economically advantaged cities tend to have longer time lags. These findings suggest that cities with compact urban structure should strictly adhere to human mobility restrictions, while economically prosperous cities should also strengthen other non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the virus. |
| WOS关键词 | DYNAMICS ; SPREAD ; WUHAN |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42041001] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41525004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] |
| WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Engineering ; Telecommunications |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000597188600001 |
| 出版者 | IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/136996]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Pei, Tao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Res, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China 5.Beijing Univ Chinese Med, Dongfang Hosp, Beijing 100078, Peoples R China 6.China Japan Friendship Hosp, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xi, Wang,Pei, Tao,Liu, Qiyong,et al. Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China[J]. IEEE ACCESS,2020,8:216752-216761. |
| APA | Xi, Wang.,Pei, Tao.,Liu, Qiyong.,Song, Ci.,Liu, Yaxi.,...&Zhang, Zhixin.(2020).Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China.IEEE ACCESS,8,216752-216761. |
| MLA | Xi, Wang,et al."Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China".IEEE ACCESS 8(2020):216752-216761. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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