Spread of COVID-19 in China: analysis from a city-based epidemic and mobility model
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wei, Ye4; Wang, Jiaoe1,3; Song, Wei2; Xiu, Chunliang5; Ma, Li1,6; Pei, Tao1,6 |
| 刊名 | CITIES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 110页码:11 |
| 关键词 | City lockdown COVID-19 Epidemic model Containment measure Population mobility |
| ISSN号 | 0264-2751 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.cities.2020.103010 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Jiaoe(wangje@igsnrr.crt) |
| 英文摘要 | Understanding the processes and mechanisms of the spatial spread of epidemics is essential for making reasonable judgments on the development trends of epidemics and for adopting effective containment measures. Using multi-agent network technology and big data on population migration, this paper constructed a city-based epidemic and mobility model (CEMM) to stimulate the spatiotemporal of COVID-19. Compared with traditional models, this model is characterized by an urban network perspective and emphasizes the important role of intercity population mobility and high-speed transportation networks. The results show that the model could simulate the inter-city spread of COVID-19 at the early stage in China with high precision. Through scenario simulation, the paper quantitatively evaluated the effect of control measures "city lockdown" and "decreasing population mobility" on containing the spatial spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. According to the simulation, the total number of infectious cases in China would have climbed to 138,824 on February 2020, or 4.46 times the real number, if neither of the measures had been implemented. Overall, the containment effect of the lockdown of cities in Hubei was greater than that of decreasing intercity population mobility, and the effect of city lockdowns was more sensitive to timing relative to decreasing population mobility. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41722103] |
| WOS研究方向 | Urban Studies |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000618544000014 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/160681]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Jiaoe |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Univ Louisville, Dept Geog & Geosci, Louisville, KY USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Northeast Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Key Lab Geog Proc & Ecol Secur Changbai Mt, Minist Educ, Changchun 130024, Jilin, Peoples R China 5.Northeastern Univ, Coll Jang Ho Architecture, Shenyang, Liaoning, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wei, Ye,Wang, Jiaoe,Song, Wei,et al. Spread of COVID-19 in China: analysis from a city-based epidemic and mobility model[J]. CITIES,2021,110:11. |
| APA | Wei, Ye,Wang, Jiaoe,Song, Wei,Xiu, Chunliang,Ma, Li,&Pei, Tao.(2021).Spread of COVID-19 in China: analysis from a city-based epidemic and mobility model.CITIES,110,11. |
| MLA | Wei, Ye,et al."Spread of COVID-19 in China: analysis from a city-based epidemic and mobility model".CITIES 110(2021):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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