Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sui, Yijie1,2,3; Fu, Dongjie2; Su, Fenzhen2 |
| 刊名 | SYMMETRY-BASEL
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:4页码:16 |
| 关键词 | Arctic route planning Arctic sea route trade forecast |
| DOI | 10.3390/sym13040610 |
| 通讯作者 | Su, Fenzhen(Sufz@lreis.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | With the advancement of global warming, the Arctic sea routes (ASRs) may open for the entire year. The ASRs will be far more competitive than they are now, and they will be the major international sea routes in the future. To date, most studies have researched the economic feasibility in the short term from a company's perspective. To help to plan the shipping market in the future, we developed a three-stage model to simulate the trade demand of the ASRs for the long term. This model firstly considers the seasonal sea ice dynamics in the future and plans new paths for vessels shipping through the Arctic. Additionally, an improved trade prediction model was developed to adapt to the long-term forecasts. After verification, the accuracy of the model was found to be very high (R-2 = 0.937). In comparison with another transportation cost model and a trade prediction model, our model was more reasonable. This study simulated the trade volumes of China, Europe (EU), and North America (NA) in 2100 with the ASRs open. The results show that the percentage of port trade can be up to 26% in representative concentration pathway (RCP)2.6, and the percentage of port trade can be up to 52% in RCP8.5. |
| WOS关键词 | ECONOMIC-FEASIBILITY ; PERSPECTIVES ; WILL |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC1402701] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000643639700001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161654]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Su, Fenzhen |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Tibetan Plateau Data Ctr, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sui, Yijie,Fu, Dongjie,Su, Fenzhen. Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open[J]. SYMMETRY-BASEL,2021,13(4):16. |
| APA | Sui, Yijie,Fu, Dongjie,&Su, Fenzhen.(2021).Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open.SYMMETRY-BASEL,13(4),16. |
| MLA | Sui, Yijie,et al."Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open".SYMMETRY-BASEL 13.4(2021):16. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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