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Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Hongjie1,2; Bao, Chao1,2
刊名ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
出版日期2021-06-01
卷号125页码:10
关键词Ecological security index (ESI) System dynamics model Complex nexus Scenario simulation Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH)
ISSN号1470-160X
DOI10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107613
通讯作者Bao, Chao(baoc@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Ecological security plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of urban agglomeration, where high population and economic density brings great pressure on eco-system. This paper selected six indicators to build an ecological security index (ESI), and constructed a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate and forecast its future scenarios. It aims at establishing the nexus among the socio-economic and ecological indicators, and identifying the key driving factors of ESI. Taking Beijing?Tianjin?Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) as a case, this paper assessed the historical situation in 2000?2015 and forecasted the future scenarios in 2016?2030. The results show that, the ESI of BTH decreased from 0.665 in 2000 to 0.648 in 2015. It will decrease to 0.632 in 2030 if the existing development mode continues. Though it belonged to the higher security level all along, obvious disparities will exist in 13 cities in BTH according to the spatiotemporal variations of ESI and its six indicators. Low guarantee degree of eco-water use and fragile ecosystem will be the primary risks of BTH all along. As the existing development mode has considered the socio-economic benefits and ecological protection, it is rational to continue for the whole BTH. However, especially in the southeast cities, the ecological development mode should be strengthened. This paper provides a framework to assess the current conditions and forecast the future scenarios of ecological security for urban agglomerations. It also might help to explore the coupling mechanism between human and ecological system.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971208] ; National Key Research and Development Project[2016YFC0503006] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040401]
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000636844400002
出版者ELSEVIER
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Project ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161864]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Bao, Chao
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resource Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Hongjie,Bao, Chao. Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2021,125:10.
APA Wang, Hongjie,&Bao, Chao.(2021).Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,125,10.
MLA Wang, Hongjie,et al."Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 125(2021):10.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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