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Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short-Term Memory Algorithm

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Hao, Mengmeng1,3; Fu, Jingying1,3; Jiang, Dong1,2,3; Ding, Fangyu1,3; Chen, Shuai1,3
刊名RISK ANALYSIS
出版日期2020-06-01
卷号40期号:6页码:1139-1150
关键词Armed conflict economy LSTM multiyear prediction yearly prediction
ISSN号0272-4332
DOI10.1111/risa.13470
通讯作者Jiang, Dong(jiangd@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要This article analyzes the linkages between the economy and armed conflict in India using annual frequency data for the period 1989-2016, the maximum time period for which consistent data are available for the country. An adequate set of economic indicators was established to fully reflect the economic condition. Long short-term memory (LSTM), which is a machine-learning algorithm for time series, was employed to simulate the relationship between the economy and armed conflict events. In addition, LSTM was applied to predict the trend of armed conflict with two strategies: multiyear predictions and yearly predictions. The results show that both strategies can adequately simulate the relationship between the economy and armed conflict, with all simulation accuracies above 90%. The accuracy of the yearly prediction is higher than that of the multiyear prediction. Theoretically, the future state and trend of armed conflict can be predicted with LSTM and future economic data if future economic data can be predicted.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CIVIL CONFLICT ; TERRORISM ; GROWTH ; PREDICTION ; TIME
WOS研究方向Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Mathematics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000541229400005
出版者WILEY
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/162352]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Jiang, Dong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Minist Nat Resources Peoples Republ China, Key Lab Carrying Capac Assessment Resource & Envi, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resource & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Hao, Mengmeng,Fu, Jingying,Jiang, Dong,et al. Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short-Term Memory Algorithm[J]. RISK ANALYSIS,2020,40(6):1139-1150.
APA Hao, Mengmeng,Fu, Jingying,Jiang, Dong,Ding, Fangyu,&Chen, Shuai.(2020).Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short-Term Memory Algorithm.RISK ANALYSIS,40(6),1139-1150.
MLA Hao, Mengmeng,et al."Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short-Term Memory Algorithm".RISK ANALYSIS 40.6(2020):1139-1150.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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