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Rising temperature threatens China's cropland

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Jianghao1; Zhang, Junjie2,4; Zhang, Peng3
刊名ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
出版日期2022-08-01
卷号17期号:8页码:11
关键词weather climate change land use China
ISSN号1748-9326
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ac84f1
通讯作者Zhang, Junjie(junjie.zhang@duke.edu) ; Zhang, Peng(zhangpeng@cuhk.edu.cn)
英文摘要The rising demand for calories and protein together with urbanization, pose significant challenges to China's food security. The determination of policy actions requires accurate estimates of climatic impacts on both crop yields (intensive margin) and cropland area (extensive margin). However, the analysis of the latter has been limited, especially in developing countries. Here, we assess the impact of temperature on land use in China by matching high-resolution satellite data on land use with daily weather data from 1980 to 2010. We find that extremely hot weather (daily average temperature above 30 degrees C) has a long-lasting effect on reducing cropland in China. Combining climate projections from 39 downscaled climate models, we predict that climate change is likely to reduce China's cropland area by 2.09%-25.51% under IPCC's slowest and fastest-warming scenarios by the end of this century. In addition, we find that non-irrigated land is more susceptible to rising temperatures in the short term; however, irrigated land is subject to a similar impact in the long term. This result suggests that the adaptive effect of irrigation could be limited under persistent rising in temperature.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ADAPTATION ; LAND-USE ; ECONOMIC-IMPACTS ; FOOD SECURITY ; WEATHER ; FLUCTUATIONS ; AGRICULTURE ; PATTERNS
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971409] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71773043] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71773062] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[2020052]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000840503200001
出版者IOP Publishing Ltd
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/166544]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zhang, Junjie; Zhang, Peng
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Duke Univ, Durham, NC 27708 USA
3.Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518172, Peoples R China
4.Duke Kunshan Univ, Suzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Jianghao,Zhang, Junjie,Zhang, Peng. Rising temperature threatens China's cropland[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2022,17(8):11.
APA Wang, Jianghao,Zhang, Junjie,&Zhang, Peng.(2022).Rising temperature threatens China's cropland.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,17(8),11.
MLA Wang, Jianghao,et al."Rising temperature threatens China's cropland".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 17.8(2022):11.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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