Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Hu, Bisong2,3; Ning, Pan2; Qiu, Jingyu1; Tao, Vincent1; Devlin, Adam Thomas2; Chen, Haiying4; Wang, Jinfeng3; Lin, Hui2 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-09-01 |
| 卷号 | 110页码:247-257 |
| 关键词 | COVID-19 Spatially stratified heterogeneity SEIR model for a stratum Space-time R-0 Latent and infection ratio Mainland China |
| ISSN号 | 1201-9712 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.04.021 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Jinfeng(wangjf@lreis.ac.cn) ; Lin, Hui(huilin@cuhk.edu.hk) |
| 英文摘要 | Objectives: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic is reaching its final phase in China. The epidemic data are available for a complete assessment of epidemiological parameters in all regions and time periods. Methods: This study aims to present a spatiotemporal epidemic model based on spatially stratified heterogeneity (SSH) to simulate the epidemic spread. A susceptible-exposed/latent-infected-removed (SEIR) model was constructed for each SSH-identified stratum (each administrative city) to estimate the spatiotemporal epidemiological parameters of the outbreak. Results: We estimated that the mean latent and removed periods were 5.40 and 2.13 days, respectively. There was an average of 1.72 latent or infected persons per 10,000 Wuhan travelers to other locations until January 20th, 2020. The space-time basic reproduction number (R-0) estimates indicate an initial value between 2 and 3.5 in most cities on this date. The mean period for R-0 estimates to decrease to 80%, and 50% of initial values in cities were an average of 14.73 and 19.62 days, respectively. Conclusions: Our model estimates the complete spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak in a space-time domain. These findings will help enhance a comprehensive understanding of the outbreak and inform the strategies of prevention and control in other countries worldwide. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. |
| WOS关键词 | TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS ; OUTBREAK ; WUHAN |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42061075] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179] ; National Science and Technology Major Project[2016YFC1302504] ; Science and Technology Major Project of Jiangxi Province, China[2020YBBGW0007] |
| WOS研究方向 | Infectious Diseases |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000704370500040 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Science and Technology Major Project ; Science and Technology Major Project of Jiangxi Province, China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/166927]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Jinfeng; Lin, Hui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Wayz AI Technol Co Ltd, 58 Xiangke Rd, Shanghai 201210, Peoples R China 2.Jiangxi Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Environm, 99 Ziyang Rd, Nanchang 330022, Jiangxi, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Nanchang Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, 833 Lijing Rd, Nanchang 330038, Jiangxi, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hu, Bisong,Ning, Pan,Qiu, Jingyu,et al. Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES,2021,110:247-257. |
| APA | Hu, Bisong.,Ning, Pan.,Qiu, Jingyu.,Tao, Vincent.,Devlin, Adam Thomas.,...&Lin, Hui.(2021).Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES,110,247-257. |
| MLA | Hu, Bisong,et al."Modeling the complete spatiotemporal spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES 110(2021):247-257. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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