A New Paradigm for Simulating and Forecasting China's Economic Growth in the Medium and Long Term
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sun Dongqi1,2; Lu Jiayi1,2 |
| 刊名 | CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 32期号:1页码:64-78 |
| 关键词 | economic growth simulation and prediction prediction model fuzzy simulation paradigm |
| ISSN号 | 1002-0063 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11769-021-1253-1 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun Dongqi(sundq@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Taking the system philosophy of human-earth relationship as the theoretical axis, and under the three-dimensional goals of economic growth, social development, and protection of the ecological environment, this paper constructs the supporting system of China's economic development. On this basis, guided by the basic principles of system theory and system dynamics, and combined with the theories of other related disciplines, we constructed an economic geography-system dynamics (EG-SD) integrated forecasting model to simulate and quantitatively forecast China's economic growth in the medium and long term. China's economic growth will be affected by quantifiable and unquantifiable factors. If the main unquantifiable factors are not taken into account in the simulation and prediction of China's economic growth in the medium and long term, the accuracy and objectivity of the prediction results will be diminished. Therefore, based on situation analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats, SWOT), we combined scenario analysis with the Delphi method, and established a qualitative prediction simulation model (referred to as the S-D compound prediction model) to make up for the shortcomings associated with quantitative simulation predictions. EG-SD and S-D are organically combined to construct a simulation and prediction paradigm of China's economic growth in the medium and long term. This paradigm not only realizes the integration of various forecasting methods and the combination of qualitative and quantitative measures, but also realizes the organic combination of unquantifiable and quantifiable elements by innovatively introducing fuzzy simulation of system dynamics, which renders the simulation and prediction results more objective and accurate. |
| WOS关键词 | INNOVATION |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530634] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971162] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000740255000005 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/169359]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun Dongqi |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun Dongqi,Lu Jiayi. A New Paradigm for Simulating and Forecasting China's Economic Growth in the Medium and Long Term[J]. CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,2022,32(1):64-78. |
| APA | Sun Dongqi,&Lu Jiayi.(2022).A New Paradigm for Simulating and Forecasting China's Economic Growth in the Medium and Long Term.CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,32(1),64-78. |
| MLA | Sun Dongqi,et al."A New Paradigm for Simulating and Forecasting China's Economic Growth in the Medium and Long Term".CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE 32.1(2022):64-78. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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