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Simulation of critical transitions and vulnerability assessment of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Yang Fei1,2,3; Ma Chao2,3; Fang Hua-jun2,3
刊名JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
出版日期2022-03-01
卷号19期号:3页码:673-688
关键词Vulnerability Transition Tipping point Tibetan Plateau Latent class analysis
ISSN号1672-6316
DOI10.1007/s11629-021-6960-7
通讯作者Yang Fei(yangfei@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Critical transitions in ecosystems may imply risks of unexpected collapse under climate changes, especially vegetation often responds sensitively to climate change. The type of vegetation ecosystem states could present alternative stable states, and its type could signal the critical transitions at tipping points because of changed climate or other drivers. This study analyzed the distribution of four key vegetation ecosystem types: desert, grassland, forest-steppe ecotone and forest, in Tibetan Plateau in China, using the latent class analysis method based on remote sensing data and climate data. This study analyzed the impacts of three key climate factors, precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration, on the vegetation states, and calculated the critical transition tipping point of potential changes in vegetation type in Tibetan Plateau with the logistic regression model. The studied results showed that climatic factors greatly affect the vegetation states and vulnerability of the Tibetan Plateau. In comparison with temperature and sunshine duration, precipitation shows more obvious impact on differentiations of the vegetations status probability. The precipitation tipping point for desert and grassland transition is averagely 48.0 mm/month, 70.7 mm/month for grassland and forest-steppe ecotone, and 115.0 mm/month for forest-steppe ecotone and forest. Both temperature and sunshine duration only show different probability change between vegetation and non-vegetation type, but produce opposite impacts. In Tibetan Plateau, the transition tipping points of vegetation and non-vegetation are about 12.1 degrees C/month and 173.6 h/month for the temperature and sunshine duration, respectively. Further, vulnerability maps calculated with the logistic regression results presented the distribution of vulnerability of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems. The vulnerability of the typical ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau is low in the southeast and is high in the northwest. The meteorological factors affect tree cover as well as the transition probability that occurs in different vegetation states. This study can provide reference for local government agencies to formulate regional development strategies and environmental protection laws and regulations.
WOS关键词LOGISTIC-REGRESSION MODELS ; ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS ; ENVIRONMENTAL-MANAGEMENT ; FOREST ; RESILIENCE ; SAVANNA ; CLIMATE ; CHINA
资助项目National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFA0604804] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020402] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42171079]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000770334000005
出版者SCIENCE PRESS
资助机构National Key R&D Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/172799]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Yang Fei
作者单位1.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Yang Fei,Ma Chao,Fang Hua-jun. Simulation of critical transitions and vulnerability assessment of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2022,19(3):673-688.
APA Yang Fei,Ma Chao,&Fang Hua-jun.(2022).Simulation of critical transitions and vulnerability assessment of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,19(3),673-688.
MLA Yang Fei,et al."Simulation of critical transitions and vulnerability assessment of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 19.3(2022):673-688.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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