Comprehensive simulation of resources and environment carrying capacity for urban agglomeration: A system dynamics approach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Bao, Chao1,2; Wang, Hongjie1,2; Sun, Siao1,2 |
| 刊名 | ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 138页码:12 |
| 关键词 | Resources and environment carrying capacity (RECC) Population threshold System dynamics (SD) model Scenario simulation Sustainable urban development |
| ISSN号 | 1470-160X |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108874 |
| 通讯作者 | Bao, Chao(baoc@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Resources and environment carrying capacity (RECC) is an important concept for regional and urban sustainable development. This study constructs a comprehensive RECC indicator and a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate its historical conditions and future scenarios, stressing the nexus between the socio-economic and ecoenvironmental factors. This methodology is applied to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH) for the period of 2000-2030. The results show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, BTH's RECC will present an "S" curve and increase from 100.26 million in 2000 to 129.65 million in 2030. Although it is greatly improved, the risk of population overload will increase, especially in Beijing, Baoding and Langfang city. Moreover, water resources carrying capacity will be the key constraining factor of RECC for BTH and its most cities. Compared with the economic-oriented and ecological-oriented development mode, to maintain the "business-as-usual" development mode is recommended for the whole BTH. However, the south-central cities should take the ecological-oriented development mode to overcome population overload. This research presents a framework to assess RECC under different scenarios for urban agglomeration. The results might provide an important guidance for sustainable urban planning and coupled human-environment system analysis. |
| WOS关键词 | RIVER-BASIN ; WATER ; CHINA ; PROVINCE ; REGION ; CITY |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971208] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41590844] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK1005] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040401] |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000795957800001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/177534]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Bao, Chao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resource Res, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bao, Chao,Wang, Hongjie,Sun, Siao. Comprehensive simulation of resources and environment carrying capacity for urban agglomeration: A system dynamics approach[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2022,138:12. |
| APA | Bao, Chao,Wang, Hongjie,&Sun, Siao.(2022).Comprehensive simulation of resources and environment carrying capacity for urban agglomeration: A system dynamics approach.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,138,12. |
| MLA | Bao, Chao,et al."Comprehensive simulation of resources and environment carrying capacity for urban agglomeration: A system dynamics approach".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 138(2022):12. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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