The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Enli21; Martre, Pierre22; Zhao, Zhigan21,23; Ewert, Frank24,25; Maiorano, Andrea1,22; Roetter, Reimund P.10,26,27; Kimball, Bruce A.28; Ottman, Michael J.29; Wall, Gerard W.28; White, Jeffrey W.28 |
| 刊名 | NATURE PLANTS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2017-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 3期号:8页码:11 |
| ISSN号 | 2055-026X |
| DOI | 10.1038/nplants.2017.102 |
| 英文摘要 | Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for > 50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 degrees C to 33 degrees C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% ( 42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections. |
| WOS关键词 | WINTER-WHEAT ; SPRING WHEAT ; PHENOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ; DEVELOPMENTAL PROCESSES ; PROTEIN-COMPOSITION ; LEAF APPEARANCE ; SOWING DATES ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; GROWTH |
| 资助项目 | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ; German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI) ; CSIRO project 'Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions' ; project 'Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen' ; CSIRO ; China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO ; Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program ; FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture[031A103B] ; Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship[PCOFUND-GA-2010-267196] ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative ; USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture[32011-68002-30191] ; KULUNDA project[01LL0905 L] ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[031A103B] ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[2812ERA115] ; FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council ; FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) ; FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41071030] ; Helmholtz project 'REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects' Topic 9: 'Climate Change and Air Quality' ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) ; Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation ; Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia ; Texas AgriLife Research, Texas AM University ; USDA-NIFA[2015-68007-23133] |
| WOS研究方向 | Plant Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000406850200001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61438]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.European Commiss Joint Res Ctr, I-21027 Ispra, Italy 2.Prince Songkla Univ, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Plant Sci, Hat Yai 90112, Thailand 3.James Hutton Inst, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland 4.Univ Florida, Inst Sustainable Food Syst, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA 5.Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Future Environm, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia 6.Nanjing Agr Univ, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr,Natl Engn & Technol, Minist Agr,Key Lab Crop System Anal & Decicion Ma, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 7.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 8.Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, New Delhi 110012, India 9.Dept Econ Dev Landscape & Water Sci Jobs Transpor, Horsham, Vic 3400, Australia 10.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Latokartanonkaari 9, Helsinki 00790, Finland |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Enli,Martre, Pierre,Zhao, Zhigan,et al. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions[J]. NATURE PLANTS,2017,3(8):11. |
| APA | Wang, Enli.,Martre, Pierre.,Zhao, Zhigan.,Ewert, Frank.,Maiorano, Andrea.,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2017).The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.NATURE PLANTS,3(8),11. |
| MLA | Wang, Enli,et al."The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions".NATURE PLANTS 3.8(2017):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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