Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Bing54,55; Asseng, Senthold54; Muller, Christoph53; Ewert, Frank21,52; Elliott, Joshua2,3; Lobell, David B.4,5; Martre, Pierre6; Ruane, Alex C.2,7; Wallach, Daniel8; Jones, JamesW.54 |
| 刊名 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2016-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 6期号:12页码:1130-+ |
| ISSN号 | 1758-678X |
| DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3115 |
| 英文摘要 | The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 degrees C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WINTER-WHEAT ; CROP YIELDS ; HEAT ; CO2 ; TRENDS ; METAANALYSIS ; VARIABILITY ; SYSTEMS ; GROWTH |
| 资助项目 | China Scholarship Council ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31611130182] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD) ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) ; CGIAR Research Program on Wheat ; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) ; National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China[20120097110042] ; National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China[2013AA100404] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31271616] ; IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000389432200023 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/65530]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Munich, Dept Geog, D-80333 Munich, Germany 2.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA 3.Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 4.Stanford Univ, Dept Environm Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 5.Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 6.Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, UMR LEPSE, F-34060 Montpellier, France 7.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA 8.INRA, Agrosyst & Dev Terr AGIR UMR1248, F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France 9.CIMMYT, Borlaug Inst South Asia, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, New Delhi 110012, India 10.Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Bing,Asseng, Senthold,Muller, Christoph,et al. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2016,6(12):1130-+. |
| APA | Liu, Bing.,Asseng, Senthold.,Muller, Christoph.,Ewert, Frank.,Elliott, Joshua.,...&Zhu, Yan.(2016).Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,6(12),1130-+. |
| MLA | Liu, Bing,et al."Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 6.12(2016):1130-+. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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