中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
首页 机构 成果 学者
  
  1. CAS IR Grid
  2. 地理科学与资源研究所
  3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  4. 自然地理与全球变化研究部
  5. 外文论文
Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Chen, Jie3,4; Liu, Yujie3,4; Pan, Tao3; Ciais, Philippe5; Ma, Ting6; Liu, Yanhua3; Yamazaki, Dai7; Ge, Quansheng3,4; Penuelas, Josep1,2
刊名JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
出版日期2020-12-20
卷号277页码:12
关键词Socioeconomic exposure Heat extremes Climate change Population exposure Gross domestic product (GDP) exposure
ISSN号0959-6526
DOI10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123275
通讯作者Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Growing evidence indicates that the risk of heat extremes will increase as climate change progresses and create a significant threat to public health and the economy. Socioeconomic exposure is the key component for assessing the risk of such events. To quantify socioeconomic exposure to heat extremes for 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, we use the projections of five global climate models forced by using three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP), and we take into account the geographic change in the distribution in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The exposure of the global population for 2046-2065 is the greatest under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, up to 1037(+/- 164) x 10(9) person-days, and the global GDP exposure for 2046-2065 is greatest under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario, up to 18(+/- 2) x 10(15) dollar-days. Asia has the highest exposure among all continents for both population and GDP, accounting for over half of the global exposure. Africa has the largest increase in exposure, with the annual population and GDP exposures increasing by over 9- and 29-fold, respectively, compared with the base period (1986-2005). The effect of climate makes the dominant contribution (47%-53%) globally for the change in population exposure. Changes in the geographic distribution of GDP cause nearly 50% of the total change in GDP exposure for 2016-2035. Mitigating emissions of greenhouse gases, either at the level of the RCP2.6 scenario or at a more ambitious target, is essential for reducing socioeconomic exposure to heat extremes. In addition, designing and implementing effective measures of adaptation are urgently needed in Asia and Africa to aid socioeconomic systems suffering from heat extremes due to climate change. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
WOS关键词1.5 DEGREES-C ; POPULATION EXPOSURE ; TEMPERATURE ; CMIP5 ; SUMMER ; IMPACT ; RISK ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; MORTALITY
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2016049] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS[2017RC101] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS[QYZDB-SSW-DQC005] ; [ERC-SyG2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000586917600055
出版者ELSEVIER SCI LTD
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156669]  
专题陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Liu, Yujie
作者单位1.CSIC, Global Ecol CREAF CSIC UAB, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
2.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci UCAS, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.IPSL LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo, Japan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Chen, Jie,Liu, Yujie,Pan, Tao,et al. Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2020,277:12.
APA Chen, Jie.,Liu, Yujie.,Pan, Tao.,Ciais, Philippe.,Ma, Ting.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2020).Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,277,12.
MLA Chen, Jie,et al."Global socioeconomic exposure of heat extremes under climate change".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 277(2020):12.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本

除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。