Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Huanjiong2,5; Wu, Chaoyang2,5; Ciais, Philippe3; Penuelas, Josep1,4; Dai, Junhu2,5; Fu, Yongshuo6; Ge, Quansheng2,5 |
| 刊名 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-10-02 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:1页码:9 |
| ISSN号 | 2041-1723 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-020-18743-8 |
| 英文摘要 | Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change. Climate warming is advancing spring leaf unfolding, but it is also reducing the cold periods that many trees require to break winter dormancy. Here, the authors show that 7 of 12 current chilling models fail to account for the correct relationship between chilling accumulation and heat requirement, leading to substantial overestimates of the advance of spring phenology under climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | DORMANCY RELEASE ; TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENCE ; PLANT PHENOLOGY ; CARBON UPTAKE ; THERMAL TIME ; FRUIT-TREES ; PHOTOPERIOD ; BREAKING ; BUDBURST ; TRENDS |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFA0606102] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41871032] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2018070] ; Program for 'Kezhen' Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2018RC101] ; ERC Synergy grant[ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000577121500008 |
| 出版者 | NATURE RESEARCH |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS ; Program for 'Kezhen' Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS ; ERC Synergy grant |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157187]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.CREAF, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.IPSL LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France 4.Global Ecol Unit CREAF CSIC UAB, CSIC, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 6.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Huanjiong,Wu, Chaoyang,Ciais, Philippe,et al. Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1):9. |
| APA | Wang, Huanjiong.,Wu, Chaoyang.,Ciais, Philippe.,Penuelas, Josep.,Dai, Junhu.,...&Ge, Quansheng.(2020).Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1),9. |
| MLA | Wang, Huanjiong,et al."Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020):9. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。