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How the Updated Earth System Models Project Terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity in China under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Chi3; Wu, Shaohong3; Deng, Yu1; Chou, Jieming2
刊名SUSTAINABILITY
出版日期2021-11-01
卷号13期号:21页码:15
关键词GPP climate change CMIP6 ESM
DOI10.3390/su132111744
通讯作者Deng, Yu(rain00788@163.com)
英文摘要Three Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were chosen to project ecosystem changes under 1.5 and 2 & DEG;C global warming targets in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4.5 W m(-2) (SSP245) scenario. Annual terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) was taken as the representative ecological indicator of the ecosystem. Under 1.5 & DEG;C global warming, GPP in four climate zones-i.e., temperate continental; temperate monsoonal; subtropical-tropical monsoonal; high-cold Tibetan Plateau-showed a marked increase, the smallest magnitude of which was around 12.3%. The increase was greater under 2 & DEG;C of global warming, which suggests that from the perspective of ecosystem productivity, global warming poses no ecological risk in China. Specifically, in comparison with historical GPP (1986-2005), under 1.5 & DEG;C global warming GPP was projected to increase by 16.1-23.8% in the temperate continental zone, 12.3-16.1% in the temperate monsoonal zone, 12.5-14.7% in the subtropical-tropical monsoonal zone, and 20.0-37.0% on the Tibetan Plateau. Under 2 & DEG;C global warming, the projected GPP increase was 23.0-34.3% in the temperate continental zone, 21.2-24.4% in the temperate monsoonal zone, 16.1-28.4% in the subtropical-tropical monsoonal zone, and 28.4-63.0% on the Tibetan Plateau. The GPP increase contributed by climate change was further quantified and attributed. The ESM prediction from the Max Planck Institute suggested that the climate contribution could range from -12.8% in the temperate continental zone up to 61.1% on the Tibetan Plateau; however, the ESMs differed markedly regarding their climate contribution to GPP change. Although precipitation has a higher sensitivity coefficient, temperature generally plays a more important role in GPP change, primarily because of the larger relative change in temperature in comparison with that of precipitation.

WOS关键词CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; COVARIATION ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; REANALYSES ; RESPONSES ; PATTERNS ; REGION
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFC1509003] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC0507802] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000718582500001
出版者MDPI
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/167681]  
专题陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Deng, Yu
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Chi,Wu, Shaohong,Deng, Yu,et al. How the Updated Earth System Models Project Terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity in China under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2021,13(21):15.
APA Zhang, Chi,Wu, Shaohong,Deng, Yu,&Chou, Jieming.(2021).How the Updated Earth System Models Project Terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity in China under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming.SUSTAINABILITY,13(21),15.
MLA Zhang, Chi,et al."How the Updated Earth System Models Project Terrestrial Gross Primary Productivity in China under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Warming".SUSTAINABILITY 13.21(2021):15.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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