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Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Ge, Yong2,3; Zhang, Wen-Bin2,3; Wang, Jianghao2; Liu, Mengxiao2,3; Ren, Zhoupeng2; Zhang, Xining2,3; Zhou, Chenghu2,3; Tian, Zhaoxing1
刊名BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
出版日期2021-03-29
卷号21期号:1页码:10
关键词Resumption strategy Hierarchy COVID-19 SEIR model China
DOI10.1186/s12889-021-10624-z
通讯作者Ge, Yong(gey@lreis.ac.cn) ; Zhou, Chenghu(zhouch@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要BackgroundThe effect of the COVID-19 outbreak has led policymakers around the world to attempt transmission control. However, lockdown and shutdown interventions have caused new social problems and designating policy resumption for infection control when reopening society remains a crucial issue. We investigated the effects of different resumption strategies on COVID-19 transmission using a modeling study setting.MethodsWe employed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks under five reopening strategies based on China's business resumption progress. The effect of each strategy was evaluated using the peak values of the epidemic curves vis-a-vis confirmed active cases and cumulative cases. Two-sample t-test was performed in order to affirm that the pick values in different scenarios are different.ResultsWe found that a hierarchy-based reopen strategy performed best when current epidemic prevention measures were maintained save for lockdown, reducing the peak number of active cases and cumulative cases by 50 and 44%, respectively. However, the modeled effect of each strategy decreased when the current intervention was lifted somewhat. Additional attention should be given to regions with significant numbers of migrants, as the potential risk of COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening is intrinsically high.ConclusionsBusiness resumption strategies have the potential to eliminate COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening without special control measures. The proposed resumption strategies focused mainly on decreasing the number of imported exposure cases, guaranteeing medical support for epidemic control, or decreasing active cases.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China[41725006]
WOS研究方向Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000636290500002
出版者BMC
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161802]  
专题资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Ge, Yong; Zhou, Chenghu
作者单位1.Peking Univ Int Hosp, Emergency Dept, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Ge, Yong,Zhang, Wen-Bin,Wang, Jianghao,et al. Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China[J]. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,2021,21(1):10.
APA Ge, Yong.,Zhang, Wen-Bin.,Wang, Jianghao.,Liu, Mengxiao.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,...&Tian, Zhaoxing.(2021).Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,21(1),10.
MLA Ge, Yong,et al."Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 21.1(2021):10.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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