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Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Yang, Jun14,15,16; Zhou, Maigeng13; Ren, Zhoupeng12; Li, Mengmeng11; Wang, Boguang14,15,16; Liu, De Li9,10; Ou, Chun-Quan8; Yin, Peng13; Sun, Jimin1; Tong, Shilu3,4,5,6,7
刊名NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
出版日期2021-02-15
卷号12期号:1页码:11
ISSN号2041-1723
DOI10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1
英文摘要Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change. Global warming is expected to increase mortality due to heat stress in many regions. Here, the authors asses how mortality due to high temperatures changes in China changes for different demographic groups and show that heat-related excess mortality is increasing under climate change, a process that is strongly amplified by population ageing.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[82003552] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071377] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701460] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[81573249] ; Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation[2020A1515011161] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province[2018A030310655] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFC0213602] ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)[2012CB955504] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[21618323] ; Guangdong Province Science and Technology Department[2019B121202002] ; Guangdong Province Science and Technology Department[2019B121205004] ; Guangdong Province Science and Technology Department[2019B110206002] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20030302] ; Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council[APP1107107] ; Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council[APP1163693]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000626747000019
出版者NATURE RESEARCH
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Guangdong Province Science and Technology Department ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/162028]  
专题资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文
作者单位1.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
3.Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Hlth & Biomed Innovat, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
4.Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
5.Anhui Med Univ, Inst Environm & Populat Hlth, Hefei, Peoples R China
6.Anhui Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Hefei, Peoples R China
7.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Med Ctr, Shanghai, Peoples R China
8.Southern Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Trop Dis Res,State Key Lab, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
9.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
10.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Yang, Jun,Zhou, Maigeng,Ren, Zhoupeng,et al. Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2021,12(1):11.
APA Yang, Jun.,Zhou, Maigeng.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,Li, Mengmeng.,Wang, Boguang.,...&Liu, Qiyong.(2021).Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,12(1),11.
MLA Yang, Jun,et al."Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 12.1(2021):11.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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