State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Schewe, Jacob12; Gosling, Simon N.18; Reyer, Christopher12; Zhao, Fang8; Ciais, Philippe9; Elliott, Joshua10,11; Francois, Louis13; Huber, Veronika14; Lotze, Heike K.15; Seneviratne, Sonia, I1 |
| 刊名 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 10期号:N/A页码:1005 |
| ISSN号 | 2041-1723 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6 |
| 英文摘要 | Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought. |
| WOS关键词 | 2003 HEAT-WAVE ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; LAND-SURFACE ; MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT ; PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; EUROPEAN HEATWAVE ; MORTALITY ; SUMMER ; WATER ; TEMPERATURE |
| 资助项目 | Leibniz Competition[SAW-2013-PIK-5] ; EU FP7 project HELIX[FP7-603864-2] ; FP7 project IMPACT2C[282746] ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[01LS1201A1] ; JSPS[16H06291] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000459988600017 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49297]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Land Climate Dynam, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland 2.Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, 602 Duncan Dr, Auburn, AL 36849 USA 3.World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, UN Environm Programme, 219 Huntingdon Rd, Cambridge CB3 0DP, England 4.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China 5.Univ Paris 06, Lab Meteorol Dynam, F-75005 Paris, France 6.Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Math, Montreal, PQ H2X 3Y7, Canada 7.Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Anselm Franz von Bentzel Weg 12, D-55128 Mainz, Germany 8.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China 9.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France 10.Univ Chicago, 5735S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schewe, Jacob,Gosling, Simon N.,Reyer, Christopher,et al. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019,10(N/A):1005. |
| APA | Schewe, Jacob.,Gosling, Simon N..,Reyer, Christopher.,Zhao, Fang.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&Warszawski, Lila.(2019).State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,10(N/A),1005. |
| MLA | Schewe, Jacob,et al."State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 10.N/A(2019):1005. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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