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Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Tian Zhan3,4,5; Ji Yinghao3,4; Sun Laixiang1,6; Xu Xinliang2; Fan Dongli3; Zhong Honglin6; Liang Zhuoran7; Ficsher, Gunther1
刊名JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
出版日期2018-11-01
卷号28期号:11页码:1700-1714
ISSN号1009-637X
关键词climate change rapeseed production AEZ Yangtze River Basin
DOI10.1007/s11442-018-1538-1
通讯作者Xu Xinliang(xuxl@lreis.ac.cn) ; Fan Dongli(fandl@sit.edu.cn)
英文摘要Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011-2040 (2020s), 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981-2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool - the AEZ model - was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.
WOS关键词RICE PRODUCTION ; YIELD ; SCALE ; GENERATION ; ADAPTATION ; PATTERNS ; CMIP5
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671113] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51761135024] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601049] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41475040] ; China's National Science & Technology Pillar Program[2016YFC0502702]
WOS研究方向Physical Geography
语种英语
出版者SCIENCE PRESS
WOS记录号WOS:000446383000011
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China's National Science & Technology Pillar Program
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52707]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Xu Xinliang; Fan Dongli
作者单位1.IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China
3.Shanghai Inst Technol, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China
4.Shanghai Meteorol Bur, Shanghai Climate Ctr, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China
5.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
6.Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
7.Hangzhou Meteorol Bur, Hangzhou 310051, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Tian Zhan,Ji Yinghao,Sun Laixiang,et al. Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2018,28(11):1700-1714.
APA Tian Zhan.,Ji Yinghao.,Sun Laixiang.,Xu Xinliang.,Fan Dongli.,...&Ficsher, Gunther.(2018).Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,28(11),1700-1714.
MLA Tian Zhan,et al."Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 28.11(2018):1700-1714.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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