Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zou, Lei2; Xia, Jun2,3; Ning, Like1; She, Dunxian2; Zhan, Chesheng3 |
| 刊名 | WATER
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 10期号:3页码:19 |
| 关键词 | hydrological drought Standardized streamflow index nonstationarity GAMLSS |
| ISSN号 | 2073-4441 |
| DOI | 10.3390/w10030315 |
| 通讯作者 | Xia, Jun(xiajun666@whu.edu.cn) ; Ning, Like(ninglk@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Long records (1960-2013) of monthly streamflow observations from 8 hydrological stations in the East Asian monsoon region are modeled using a nonstationarity framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarity of monthly streamflow series in different geographic regions and to select optimal distribution among five two-parameter distributions (Gamma, Lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull and Logistic). Based on the optimal nonstationarity distribution, a time-dependent Standardized Streamflow Index (denoted SSIvar) that takes account of the possible nonstationarity in streamflow series is constructed and then employed to identify drought characteristics at different time scales (at a 3-month scale and a 12-month scale) in the eight selected catchments during 1960-2013 for comparison. Results of GAMLSS models indicate that they are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the monthly streamflow series with distribution parameters that are a linear function of time. For 8 hydrological stations in different geographic regions, a noticeable difference is observed between the historical drought assessment of Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and SSIvar, indicating that the nonstationarity could not be ignored in the hydrological drought analyses, especially for stations with change point and significant change trends. The constructed SSIvar is, to some extent, found to be more reliable and suitable for regional drought monitoring than traditional SSI in a changing environment, thereby providing a feasible alternative for drought forecasting and water resource management at different time scales. |
| WOS关键词 | GENERALIZED ADDITIVE-MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; STATIONARITY ; FLOOD ; STREAMFLOW ; SERIES ; TRENDS ; BASIN ; RIVER |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFA0603702] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701023] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571028] |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000428516000080 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54902]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Xia, Jun; Ning, Like |
| 作者单位 | 1.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,Ning, Like,et al. Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index[J]. WATER,2018,10(3):19. |
| APA | Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,Ning, Like,She, Dunxian,&Zhan, Chesheng.(2018).Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index.WATER,10(3),19. |
| MLA | Zou, Lei,et al."Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index".WATER 10.3(2018):19. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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