Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Leng, Guoyong1; Peng, Jian3; Huang, Shengzhi2 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-10-10 |
| 卷号 | 686页码:819-827 |
| 关键词 | Agricultural production Climate variability Harvest area Yield Modelling US |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.026 |
| 通讯作者 | Leng, Guoyong(lenggy@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Despite the fact that it is the total crop production that shapes future food supply rather than one of its single component, previous studies have mainly focused on the changes in crop yield. It is possible that recent gains in crop production arc mainly due to improvement of yield rather than growth of harvest area. However, it remains unclear about the geographical patterns of their relative contributions at fine scales and the possible mechanisms. Analysis of US maize production shows that maize production has increased significantly at a rate of 2.1%/year during 1980-2010. Although yield is the dominant factor contributing to production growth for the country as a whole, the importance of harvest area has become more evident with time. In 56% of US's maize growing counties, harvest area has also contributed more than yield to production changes. High spatial correlation between the change rates of harvest area and production is observed (R = 0.96), while a weak relation (R = 0.21) is found between the spatial patterns of yield and production. This suggests that harvest area has exerted the dominant role in modulating the spatial distribution pattern of maize production changes. Further analysis suggests that yield and harvest area respond differently to climate variability, which has great implications for adaptation strategies. Comparing 11 state-of-the-art crop model simulations against census data reveals large bias in the simulated spatial patterns of maize production. Nevertheless, such bias can be reduced substantially by incorporating the observed dynamics of harvest area, pointing to a potential pathway for future model improvement. This study highlights the importance of accounting for harvest area dynamics in assessing agricultural production empirically or with crop models. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | FOOD SECURITY ; YIELD ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACT ; US ; INTENSIFICATION ; VARIABILITY ; PROTOCOLS ; WEATHER ; DEMAND |
| 资助项目 | Young Talents Supporting Programme of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[YJRCPT2019-001] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000479029700072 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | Young Talents Supporting Programme of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/68774]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Leng, Guoyong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Base Ecohydraul Engn Arid Area, Xian 710048, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leng, Guoyong,Peng, Jian,Huang, Shengzhi. Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019,686:819-827. |
| APA | Leng, Guoyong,Peng, Jian,&Huang, Shengzhi.(2019).Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,686,819-827. |
| MLA | Leng, Guoyong,et al."Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 686(2019):819-827. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。