A Spatially Explicit Assessment of Growing Water Stress in China From the Past to the Future
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Xingcai1,2; Tang, Qiuhong1,3; Liu, Wenfeng2,4; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.5,6; Boulange, Julien7; Liu, Junguo8; Wada, Yoshihide6; Huang, Zhongwei1; Yang, Hong2,9 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-09-01 |
| 卷号 | 7期号:9页码:1027-1043 |
| 关键词 | water stress water scarcity water withdrawal streamflow climate change socioeconomic development |
| DOI | 10.1029/2019EF001181 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Xingcai(xingcailiu@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Tang, Qiuhong(tangqh@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | In this study, we examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of water stress in China for the historical (1971-2010) and the future (2021-2050) periods using a multimodel simulation approach. Three water stress indices (WSIs), that is, the ratios of water withdrawals to locally generated runoff (WSIR), to natural streamflow (WSIQ), and to natural streamflow minus upstream consumptive water withdrawals (WSIC), are used for the assessment. At the basin level, WSIR estimates generally match the reported data and indicate severe water stress in most northern basins. At the grid cell level, the WSIs show distinct spatial patterns of water stress wherein WSIR (WSIQ) estimates higher (lower) water stress compared to WSIC. Based on the WSIC estimates, 368 million people (nearly one third of the total population) are affected by severe water stress annually during the historical period, while WSIR and WSIQ suggest 595 and 340 million, respectively. Future projections of WSIC indicate that more than 600 million people (43% of the total) might be affected by severe water stress, and half of China's land area would be exposed to stress. The found aggravating water stress conditions could be partly attributed to the elevated future water withdrawals. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering explicit upstream and downstream relations with respect to both water availability and water use in water stress assessment and calls for more attention to increasing levels of water stress in China in the coming decades. Plain Language Summary Severe water stress in China has been widely reported, but its time evolution and spatial patterns are rarely assessed. We examine the spatial and temporal change patterns of water stress in China by using multimodel simulations and three different water stress indices (WSIs). Results suggest that different WSIs imply distinct spatial patterns of water stress over China. The WSIs indicate that water stress conditions in northern China are quite distinct from that in southern China. During the past decades (1971-2010), severe water stress is found in northern areas while little is found in southern areas. In the future (2021-2050), however, water-stressed areas might expand in southern China and water stress levels might aggravate in urban areas, putting considerably more people exposed to severe water stress. This assessment provides useful information for regional water planning/management within the context of future climate change and socioeconomic development in China. Key Points Water stress estimates can be much different with the consideration of upstream water withdrawal and consumption Severe water stress conditions are found in northern China in the past Water-stressed areas significantly expand over southern China in the future |
| WOS关键词 | ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW REQUIREMENTS ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES ; INTEGRATED MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SCARCITY ; RESOURCES ; IMPACTS ; VULNERABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; INDICATORS |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000491418700002 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131929]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, Dubendorf, Switzerland 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Paris Saclay, UVSQ, CNRS, LSCE,IPSL,CEA, Gif Sur Yvette, France 5.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands 6.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 7.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan 8.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China 9.Univ Basel, MGU, Dept Environm Sci, Basel, Switzerland |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Xingcai,Tang, Qiuhong,Liu, Wenfeng,et al. A Spatially Explicit Assessment of Growing Water Stress in China From the Past to the Future[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019,7(9):1027-1043. |
| APA | Liu, Xingcai.,Tang, Qiuhong.,Liu, Wenfeng.,Veldkamp, Ted I. E..,Boulange, Julien.,...&Yang, Hong.(2019).A Spatially Explicit Assessment of Growing Water Stress in China From the Past to the Future.EARTHS FUTURE,7(9),1027-1043. |
| MLA | Liu, Xingcai,et al."A Spatially Explicit Assessment of Growing Water Stress in China From the Past to the Future".EARTHS FUTURE 7.9(2019):1027-1043. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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