Simulated responses of global rice trade to variations in yield under climate change: Evidence from main rice-producing countries
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wu, Feng1; Wang, Yihan2; Liu, Yu3,4; Liu, Yawen3,4; Zhang, Yali1 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-01-25 |
| 卷号 | 281页码:8 |
| 关键词 | Rice yield Global trade pattern Food security 1.5 degrees C scenario meta-Analysis GTAP model |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124690 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yali(zhangyali@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change threatens food security and will therefore further challenge sustainable development goals. Bangladesh, China, India, and Myanmar (BCIM), primary rice producers and consumers, have been experiencing the impacts of climate change for decades. This study examines climate-induced changes in BCIM's rice yield from a meta-analysis based on a 1.5 degrees C climate change scenario and then presents a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to simulate the consequent international impacts on rice production, price, trade, and self-sufficiency. Results show that a 1.5 degrees C scenario will cause a substantial rice yield loss of 5.39%, 12.44%, and 3.87% in China, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, respectively, but will lead to an increase of 8.62% in rice yield in India. Further, global trade responds to climate change, resulting in decreases in paddy and processed rice production for most countries and larger domestic price fluctuations only for BCIM. Rice production loss under a 1.5 degrees C scenario is dampened through trade to adapt to climate change, especially for China, as its paddy rice production loss (0.30%) is far less than the yield loss (5.39%). BCIM countries will adjust their import and export structure with little change in rice self-sufficiency. This study concludes with policy recommendations to adapt to climate change guiding more open rice trade regimes and developing rice varieties. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | FOOD SECURITY ; WATER-USE ; IMPACT ; CHINA ; UNCERTAINTIES ; ADAPTATION ; INDIA ; MODEL |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[31861143015] ; Youth Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[71704172] ; Key Deployment Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000609019300011 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Deployment Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/136131]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yali |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Peking Univ, Sch Environm & Energy, Shenzhen Grad Sch, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wu, Feng,Wang, Yihan,Liu, Yu,et al. Simulated responses of global rice trade to variations in yield under climate change: Evidence from main rice-producing countries[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2021,281:8. |
| APA | Wu, Feng,Wang, Yihan,Liu, Yu,Liu, Yawen,&Zhang, Yali.(2021).Simulated responses of global rice trade to variations in yield under climate change: Evidence from main rice-producing countries.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,281,8. |
| MLA | Wu, Feng,et al."Simulated responses of global rice trade to variations in yield under climate change: Evidence from main rice-producing countries".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 281(2021):8. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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