CMIP5 climate projections for the Yamzhog Yumco Basin: an environmental testbed for alpine lakes
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sun, Rui1,2; Zhang, Xueqin1; Fraedrich, Klaus3; You, Qinglong4,5 |
| 刊名 | THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-11-12 |
| 页码 | 14 |
| ISSN号 | 0177-798X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00704-020-03451-6 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Xueqin(zhangxq@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | As projections of future climate change rely on global climate model (GCM) results, the performances of five GCMs included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are compared with ground observations (temperature and precipitation, 1961-2005) in southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP). The comparison suggests that the models capture the climatological patterns of the observed climate but with cold and wet biases. Future (twenty-first century) trends based on the GCMs' projections produced a warming trend, and the annual precipitation of the multi-model mean is generally projected to increase. Relative to the 1986-2005 mean, both the average annual temperature and precipitation of the five GCMs are projected to increase in the short term (2016-2035), medium term (2046-2065), and long term (2081-2100) under the scenarios of rcp2.6, rcp4.5, and rcp8.5. While the temperature and precipitation changes and the difference among scenarios become substantial as time evolves. Possible regional climate change impact on the Yamzhog Yumco Basin in southern TP is demonstrated by future lake area estimates based on a minimalist parametric model and the average annual precipitation predicted by the five GCMs: the lake area of Yamzhog Yumco (including Kongmu Co) will expand under the three scenarios for the three periods relative to the 1974-1993 mean. It is expected to obtain more reliable local information with the downscaling of GCM simulations to regional scales by using regional climate models for assessing regional hydrological impacts in more detail for further studies in the southern TP. |
| WOS关键词 | TIBETAN PLATEAU ; PAN EVAPORATION ; NAM CO ; PRECIPITATION ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; GLACIER ; RETREAT ; RIVER ; SIMULATIONS |
| 资助项目 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)[2019QZKK0202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41471064] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000588992300002 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER WIEN |
| 资助机构 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156631]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Xueqin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Trop Agr Sci, Rubber Res Inst, Haikou, Hainan, Peoples R China 3.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany 4.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China 5.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Rui,Zhang, Xueqin,Fraedrich, Klaus,et al. CMIP5 climate projections for the Yamzhog Yumco Basin: an environmental testbed for alpine lakes[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2020:14. |
| APA | Sun, Rui,Zhang, Xueqin,Fraedrich, Klaus,&You, Qinglong.(2020).CMIP5 climate projections for the Yamzhog Yumco Basin: an environmental testbed for alpine lakes.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,14. |
| MLA | Sun, Rui,et al."CMIP5 climate projections for the Yamzhog Yumco Basin: an environmental testbed for alpine lakes".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (2020):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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