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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel1,3,4; Tang, Qiuhong1,3; Hosseini-Moghari, Seyed-Mohammad3; Liu, Xingcai3; Gebremicael, T. G.4; Leng, Guoyong3; Kebede, Asfaw2; Xu, Ximeng3; Yun, Xiaobo3
刊名EARTHS FUTURE
出版日期2020-07-01
卷号8期号:7页码:23
关键词SPI SPEI drought East Africa uncertainty climate change
DOI10.1029/2020EF001502
通讯作者Tang, Qiuhong(tangqh@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011-2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041-2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071-2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the "dry gets drier and wet gets wetter" paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa.
WOS关键词EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS ; FOOD SECURITY ; GLOBAL ASSESSMENT ; UNCERTAINTY ; RAINFALL ; MULTIMODEL ; INDEXES ; WATER ; VARIABILITY
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41730645] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41790424] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41425002] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060402] ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[131A11KYSB20170113] ; Newton Advanced Fellowship ; Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President's PhD fellowship program
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000556870200005
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Newton Advanced Fellowship ; Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President's PhD fellowship program
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158158]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Tang, Qiuhong
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Haramaya Univ, Inst Technol, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Tigray Agr Res Inst, Mekelle, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel,Tang, Qiuhong,Hosseini-Moghari, Seyed-Mohammad,et al. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2020,8(7):23.
APA Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel.,Tang, Qiuhong.,Hosseini-Moghari, Seyed-Mohammad.,Liu, Xingcai.,Gebremicael, T. G..,...&Yun, Xiaobo.(2020).Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa.EARTHS FUTURE,8(7),23.
MLA Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel,et al."Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa".EARTHS FUTURE 8.7(2020):23.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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