Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5 degrees C Warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhai, Ran3,4; Tao, Fulu3,4,5; Lall, Upmanu6,7; Fu, Bojie8; Elliott, Joshua1; Jagermeyr, Jonas1,2 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 8期号:7页码:17 |
| 关键词 | Paris Agreement extreme runoff risks Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR) population GDP |
| DOI | 10.1029/2019EF001398 |
| 通讯作者 | Tao, Fulu(taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well-established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5 degrees C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2 degrees C versus 1.5 degrees C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2 degrees C than 1.5 degrees C. |
| WOS关键词 | REGIONAL-SCALE HYDROLOGY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ; LAND-SURFACE WATER ; VIC-2L MODEL ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; SPATIAL-RESOLUTION ; BIAS CORRECTION ; STREAMFLOW ; RIVER ; 21ST-CENTURY |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0604703] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571088] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571493] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31561143003] ; China Scholarship Council |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000556870200014 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Scholarship Council |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158186]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Tao, Fulu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chicago, Dept Comp Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 2.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki, Finland 6.Columbia Univ, Columbia Water Ctr, New York, NY USA 7.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Engn, New York, NY USA 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecoenvironm Sci, State Key Lab Urban & Reg Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhai, Ran,Tao, Fulu,Lall, Upmanu,et al. Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5 degrees C Warming[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2020,8(7):17. |
| APA | Zhai, Ran,Tao, Fulu,Lall, Upmanu,Fu, Bojie,Elliott, Joshua,&Jagermeyr, Jonas.(2020).Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5 degrees C Warming.EARTHS FUTURE,8(7),17. |
| MLA | Zhai, Ran,et al."Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5 degrees C Warming".EARTHS FUTURE 8.7(2020):17. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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