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Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Ren, Yanqun1,2,3; Liu, Suxia1,3
刊名METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
出版日期2020-06-03
页码21
ISSN号0177-7971
DOI10.1007/s00703-020-00750-5
通讯作者Liu, Suxia(liusx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要The influence of climate change on regional-scale precipitation is becoming undeniable, and can lead to increased flood and drought risks in some regions. The study assessed the potential effect of global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C on total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) based on General Circulation Models (GCMs). Seven total precipitation and six snowfall indices were employed in this analysis. The results show that the annual precipitation (PA) in the UYRB will increase by approximately 4.5-5% and 9-13% per 1.0 degrees C under the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming, respectively. Spatially, the PA is shown to increase across the northern part of the basin, but decrease in the southern part. Relative to the baseline period (1986-2005), the frequency of trace and moderate precipitation days shows a decreasing trend, while that of heavy and intense precipitation days will increase under both 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming scenarios. Moreover, it varies among significance levels of trace, light, moderate, heavy and intense precipitation frequency under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Unlike overall total precipitation, the annual snowfall (ASF) will decrease by approximately 2.5-8% per 1.0 degrees C under the 1.5 degrees C warming, and the 2-4% per 1.0 degrees C under the 2 degrees C warming. The ASF exhibits a decreasing trend in most of the UYRB except for the far northern part under all global warming scenarios. The date of first snowfall is modeled to be delayed and that of last snowfall will advance, which will lead to the decrease of snowfall days by about 15-20 days under different warming scenarios. In a warming world, total precipitation in the UYRB will increase and snowfall will decrease, which may increase the risk of flood in the future, and more attention should be paid.
WOS关键词EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION ; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; CHINA ; RESPONSES ; IMPACTS ; STREAMFLOW ; PROJECTION ; PATTERNS ; CYCLE
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA2004030] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0603702] ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)[2012CB957802]
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000537928700001
出版者SPRINGER WIEN
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/159446]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Liu, Suxia
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Coll Surveying & Geoinformat, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Environm & Resources, Sino Danish Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Ren, Yanqun,Liu, Suxia. Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios[J]. METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS,2020:21.
APA Ren, Yanqun,&Liu, Suxia.(2020).Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios.METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS,21.
MLA Ren, Yanqun,et al."Difference of total precipitation and snowfall in the Upper Yangtze River basin under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios".METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS (2020):21.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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