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On the Stationarity of Annual Precipitation over China (1959-2018)

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Hong1; Sun, Fubao1,2,3,4,5
刊名JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
出版日期2020-05-01
卷号21期号:5页码:881-890
关键词Precipitation Climate change Climate variability Time series Variational analysis Annual variations
ISSN号1525-755X
DOI10.1175/JHM-D-19-0195.1
通讯作者Wang, Hong(wanghong@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Sun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Stationarity is an assumption that permeates training and practice in water-resource engineering. However, with global change, the validity of stationarity as well as uncertainty of nonstationarity in water-resource planning are being questioned; thus, it is critical to evaluate the stationarity of climate variables, especially precipitation. Based on the continuous observation data of precipitation from 1427 stations across China, 593 efficient grid cells (1 degrees x 1 degrees) are constructed, and the annual precipitation stationarities from 1959 to 2018 are analyzed. The evaluated autocorrelation stationarity indicates that 92.24%-96.12% of the grid cells for an autocorrelation coefficient of lag 1-8 years of precipitation are indistinguishable from 0 [90% confidence level (CL)]. The mean stationarity indicates that 97.47% of the grid cells have a stable mean for 30 years (90% CL); beyond the confidence limits, they are mainly located in the northwest of China, where annual precipitation is less, and the average exceeding range is +/- 3.78 mm. The long-term observation of annual precipitation in Beijing (1819-2018) and Shanghai (1879-2018) also yields autocorrelation and mean stationarities. There is no significant difference in the annual precipitations between the past 20 years (1999-2018) and the past 60 years (1959-2018) over China. Therefore, the annual precipitation in China exhibits a weak stationary behavior that is indistinguishable from the stationary stochastic process. The average variation in precipitation is +/- 9.55% between 30 successive years and 16.53% between 10 successive years. Therefore, it is valuable and feasible to utilize the historical data of annual precipitation as the basis of water-resources application.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RAINFALL ; EXTREMES ; TEMPERATURE ; SERIES ; DEAD ; FLOW
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23040504] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601035] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; Key Programs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Pioneer Hundred Talents Program
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000537793100002
出版者AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Key Programs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Pioneer Hundred Talents Program
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/159510]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Wang, Hong; Sun, Fubao
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China
3.Akesu Natl Stn Observat & Res Oasis Agroecosyst, Akesu, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Water Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Hong,Sun, Fubao. On the Stationarity of Annual Precipitation over China (1959-2018)[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2020,21(5):881-890.
APA Wang, Hong,&Sun, Fubao.(2020).On the Stationarity of Annual Precipitation over China (1959-2018).JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,21(5),881-890.
MLA Wang, Hong,et al."On the Stationarity of Annual Precipitation over China (1959-2018)".JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY 21.5(2020):881-890.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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