Africa Would Need to Import More Maize in the Future Even Under 1.5 degrees C Warming Scenario
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhai, Ran3,4; Tao, Fulu3,4,5; Lall, Upmanu2,6; Elliott, Joshua1 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021 |
| 卷号 | 9期号:1页码:15 |
| 关键词 | agricultural production climate change food security hunger population shared socioeconomic pathway |
| DOI | 10.1029/2020EF001574 |
| 通讯作者 | Tao, Fulu(taofl@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Producing enough food to feed a growing population is a great future challenge, especially for vulnerable areas in Africa. There is limited understanding of food security under future climate conditions, particularly under the warming target stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Maize is the most widely cultivated crop in Africa. Taking maize as an example, we present an integrated assessment of maize supply and demand under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios, considering the combined impacts of climate change, technology development and population increase. We find that global warming of 1.5 degrees C or 2.0 degrees C would shorten maize growth duration, aggravate droughts, and consequently reduce yield with a spatially explicit pattern. Maize yield would decrease more under global warming of 2.0 degrees C versus 1.5 degrees C. Benefit of rising CO2 concentration could not fully offset the yield loss due to climate change under global warming of 1.5 degrees C. Technology development can significantly improve the ratio of maize supply to demand, which is however subject to future projections on population and technology development. Under a reasonable logarithmic technology development scenario, maize security would become worse in most of the countries in Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of technology development and adaptation strategies to meet the challenges of food security in the vulnerable regions. |
| WOS关键词 | GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD SECURITY ; GCM SCENARIOS ; ELEVATED CO2 ; MAJOR CROPS ; IMPACTS ; YIELD ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATION |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0604703] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0606500] ; China Scholarship Council |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000613337700007 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; China Scholarship Council |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/160693]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Tao, Fulu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chicago, Dept Comp Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA 2.Columbia Univ, Columbia Water Ctr, New York, NY USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki, Finland 6.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Engn, New York, NY USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhai, Ran,Tao, Fulu,Lall, Upmanu,et al. Africa Would Need to Import More Maize in the Future Even Under 1.5 degrees C Warming Scenario[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2021,9(1):15. |
| APA | Zhai, Ran,Tao, Fulu,Lall, Upmanu,&Elliott, Joshua.(2021).Africa Would Need to Import More Maize in the Future Even Under 1.5 degrees C Warming Scenario.EARTHS FUTURE,9(1),15. |
| MLA | Zhai, Ran,et al."Africa Would Need to Import More Maize in the Future Even Under 1.5 degrees C Warming Scenario".EARTHS FUTURE 9.1(2021):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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