Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Meresa, Hadush; Zhang, Yongqiang |
| 刊名 | WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-04-18 |
| 页码 | 21 |
| 关键词 | Uncertainty Hydrological models Parameters Extremes Frequency |
| ISSN号 | 0920-4741 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11269-021-02809-3 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang(yongqiang.zhang2014@gmail.com) |
| 英文摘要 | Evaluation of possible sources of uncertainty and their influence on water resource planning and extreme hydrological characteristics are very important for extreme risk reduction and management. The main objective is to identify and holistically address the uncertainty propagation from the input data to the frequency of hydrological extremes. This novel uncertainty estimation framework has four stages that comprise hydrological models, hydrological parameter sets, and frequency distribution types. The influence of uncertainty on the simulated flow is not uniform across all the selected eight catchments due to different flow regimes and runoff generation mechanisms. The result shows that uncertainty in peak flow frequency simulation mainly comes from the input data quality. Whereas, in the low flow frequency, the main contributor to the total uncertainty is model parameterization. The total uncertainty in the estimation of QT90 (extreme peak flow quantile at 90-year return period) quantile shows the interaction of input data and extreme frequency models has significant influence. In contrast, the hydrological models and hydrological parameters have a substantial impact on the QT10 (extreme low flow quantile at 10-year return period) estimation. This implies that the four factors and their interactions may cause significant risk in water resource management and flood and drought risk management. Therefore, neglecting these factors in disaster risk management, water resource planning, and evaluation of environmental impact assessment is not feasible and may lead to significant impact. |
| WOS关键词 | MODEL ; GLUE ; PRECIPITATION ; PARAMETER ; BASIN |
| 资助项目 | CAS Pioneer Talents Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971032] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000640868500001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 资助机构 | CAS Pioneer Talents Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161632]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Yongqiang |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Meresa, Hadush,Zhang, Yongqiang. Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2021:21. |
| APA | Meresa, Hadush,&Zhang, Yongqiang.(2021).Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,21. |
| MLA | Meresa, Hadush,et al."Contrasting Uncertainties in Estimating Floods and Low Flow Extremes".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (2021):21. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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