Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Wenbin2; Yang, Tao2,4; Sun, Fubao1,2,3,4; Wang, Hong2; Feng, Yao2; Du, Muye2 |
| 刊名 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-03-01 |
| 卷号 | 57期号:3页码:16 |
| ISSN号 | 0043-1397 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2020WR028830 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | River flooding is among the costliest natural disasters with severe economic, societal, and environmental consequences. However, substantial uncertainties remain in global and regional projections of future flood conditions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) and/or global hydrological models (GHMs). Using physical models coupled with machine learning (ML), for the first time, we project changes in flood magnitudes of 2062 global river basins by constraining physical-based streamflow simulations with observations under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming scenarios identified for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We found that, during the validation period, the GHMs-simulated flood magnitudes would improve with reduced uncertainty over the selected river basins after ML with a Long Short-Term Memory network. Our estimation suggested that flood magnitudes would increase in many Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitude rivers (e.g., Lena River, Amur River and Volga River) but decrease in some river basins in southern Finland and Eastern Europe in future periods (i.e., 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming levels). In 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warmer worlds, the decreasing flood magnitudes in most South American rivers are associated with decreased soil moisture and increased evapotranspiration induced by warmer temperatures. Although the geographical pattern of changes in flood magnitudes for the +2 degrees C experiment is close to that of the +1.5 degrees C experiment, a 1.5 degrees C warming target is more likely to reduce flood magnitudes of many river basins worldwide (e.g., in central and eastern Siberia, Alaska/ Northwest Canada and South America). |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFA0606903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42022005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42025104] ; Program for the Kezhen-Bingwei Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2020RC004] ; Top-Notch Young Talents Program of China |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000635680800049 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Program for the Kezhen-Bingwei Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Top-Notch Young Talents Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161760]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Sun, Fubao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Akesu Natl Stn Observ & Res Oasis Agroecosyst, Akesu, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Wenbin,Yang, Tao,Sun, Fubao,et al. Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2021,57(3):16. |
| APA | Liu, Wenbin,Yang, Tao,Sun, Fubao,Wang, Hong,Feng, Yao,&Du, Muye.(2021).Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,57(3),16. |
| MLA | Liu, Wenbin,et al."Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 57.3(2021):16. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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