Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, YongYong2; Xia, Jun2; Shao, QuanXi3; Li, Lu1; Yen, Haw4; Zhai, XiaoYan5; Zhao, TongTieGang6; Lin, KaiRong6 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-06-28 |
| 页码 | 14 |
| 关键词 | module uncertainty propagated uncertainty uncertainty combination integrated water system simulations GLUE |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7321 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11431-020-1752-0 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, YongYong(zhangyy003@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Integrated water quantity and quality simulations have become a popular tool in investigations on global water crisis. For integrated and complex models, conventional uncertainty estimations focus on the uncertainties of individual modules, e.g., module parameters and structures, and do not consider the uncertainties propagated from interconnected modules. Therefore, this study investigated all the uncertainties of integrated water system simulations using the GLUE (i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) method, including uncertainties associated with individual modules, propagated uncertainties associated with interconnected modules, and their combinations. The changes in both acceptability thresholds of GLUE and the uncertainty estimation results were also investigated for different fixed percentages of total number of iterations (100000). Water quantity and quality variables (i.e., runoff and ammonium nitrogen) were selected for the case study. The results showed that module uncertainty did not affect the runoff simulation performance, but remarkably weakened the water quality responses as the fixed percentage increased during calibration and validation periods. The propagated uncertainty from hydrological modules could not be ignored for water quality simulations, particularly during validation. The combination of module and propagated uncertainties further weakened the water quality simulation performance. The uncertainty intervals became wider owing to an increase in the fixed percentages and introduction of more uncertainty sources. Moreover, the acceptability threshold had a negative nonlinear relationship with the fixed percentage. The fixed percentages (similar to 20.0%-30.0%) were proposed as the acceptability thresholds owing to the satisfactory simulation performance and noticeably reduced uncertainty intervals they produced. This study provided methodological foundations for estimating multiple uncertainty sources of integrated water system models. |
| WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; BAYESIAN-ESTIMATION ; QUALITY ; CALIBRATION ; QUANTITY ; PROPAGATION ; PREDICTION ; MANAGEMENT |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071041] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41807171] ; Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[51822908] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Materials Science |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000668401500001 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of the National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163783]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, YongYong |
| 作者单位 | 1.NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.CSIRO Data 61, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia 4.Texas A&M Univ, Blackland Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX 76502 USA 5.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 6.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, YongYong,Xia, Jun,Shao, QuanXi,et al. Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES,2021:14. |
| APA | Zhang, YongYong.,Xia, Jun.,Shao, QuanXi.,Li, Lu.,Yen, Haw.,...&Lin, KaiRong.(2021).Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds.SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES,14. |
| MLA | Zhang, YongYong,et al."Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds".SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES (2021):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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