Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Qiance1,2,3; Liu, Litao2; Liu, Xiaojie2; Li, Shenggong2,3; Liu, Gang1 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-08-16 |
| 页码 | 13 |
| 关键词 | building stock China construction sector dynamic material flow analysis industrial ecology labor demand forecasting |
| ISSN号 | 1088-1980 |
| DOI | 10.1111/jiec.13182 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Gang(gli@igt.sdu.dk) |
| 英文摘要 | The rapid urbanization and building boom in China in the past decades provided not only massive residential and nonresidential floor space, but also millions of jobs especially for migrants from rural areas. However, such high-speed growth of building stocks is not expected to continue forever and its dynamics, especially declining, may affect the job market of the construction sector and further China's social stability. Here, we extended a dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) model that characterized the building stocks and flows to forecast the province-level direct labor demand in construction, installation, and decoration in mainland China from 1950 to 2050. We show that as China's per capita building stocks start to saturate in the next decades, building inflow will decrease with a speed of 2.6-2.7 billion m(2)/year, corresponding to a decrease of direct construction employment by 2-3 million by 2050. The flow of migrant workers from Central South and Southwestern China to construction in the Southeastern coast of China will remain until 2050. Our results exemplify the usefulness of dMFA for labor demand forecasting and call for proper governmental plans and policies in advance to train migrant workers for new labor markets and potential re-employment in face of the construction bubble and bust. |
| WOS关键词 | MATERIAL FLOW-ANALYSIS ; MANPOWER DEMAND ; DEMOLITION ; WASTE ; MODEL |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71991484] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71991480] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72042020] ; Independent Research Fund Denmark (iBuildGreen) |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000685485000001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Independent Research Fund Denmark (iBuildGreen) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164599]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Gang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Green Technol, SDU Life Cycle Engn, DK-5230 Odense, Denmark 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sino Danish Coll, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Qiance,Liu, Litao,Liu, Xiaojie,et al. Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China[J]. JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY,2021:13. |
| APA | Liu, Qiance,Liu, Litao,Liu, Xiaojie,Li, Shenggong,&Liu, Gang.(2021).Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China.JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY,13. |
| MLA | Liu, Qiance,et al."Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China".JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY (2021):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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