Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Du, Panpan1,2,3; Xu, Ming1,3; Li, Renqiang1 |
| 刊名 | PEERJ
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-10-12 |
| 卷号 | 9页码:21 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Water shortage Global Climate Model (GCM) Runoff Downscaling |
| ISSN号 | 2167-8359 |
| DOI | 10.7717/peerj.12201 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Ming(mingxu@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Li, Renqiang(renqiangli@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Background: Climate change has altered global hydrological cycles mainly due to changes in temperature and precipitation, which may exacerbate the global and regional water shortage issues, especially in the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). Methods: In this paper, we assessed water supply, demand, and stress under three climate change scenarios in the major countries along the Belt and Road. We ensembled ten Global Climate Model (GCM) runoff data and downscaled it to a finer resolution of 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees by the random forest model. Results: Our results showed that the GCM runoff was highly correlated with the FAO renewable water resources and thus could be used to estimate water supply. Climate change would increase water supply by 4.85%, 5.18%, 8.16% and water demand by 1.45%, 1.68%, 2.36% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios by 2050s, respectively. As a result, climate change will, in general, have little impact on water stress in the B&R countries as a whole. However, climate change will make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the B&R countries and regions, exacerbating water stress in some countries, especially in Central Asia and West Asia. Our results are informative for water resource managers and policymakers in the B&R countries to make sustainable water management strategies under future climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS ; CMIP5 MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; GLOBAL EVALUATION ; TEMPERATURE ; IRRIGATION ; AVAILABILITY ; SCARCITY ; DEMAND |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Project Climate change Impacts and Adaptation in Major Economies of the Belt and Road[2018YFA0606502] ; National Natural Sciences Foundation of China[41971060] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000708468000001 |
| 出版者 | PEERJ INC |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Project Climate change Impacts and Adaptation in Major Economies of the Belt and Road ; National Natural Sciences Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/167140]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Ming; Li, Renqiang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Sino Danish Ctr Educ & Res SDC, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Du, Panpan,Xu, Ming,Li, Renqiang. Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road[J]. PEERJ,2021,9:21. |
| APA | Du, Panpan,Xu, Ming,&Li, Renqiang.(2021).Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road.PEERJ,9,21. |
| MLA | Du, Panpan,et al."Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road".PEERJ 9(2021):21. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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