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Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Xuezhen2,5; Wang, Fahao2,3; Lu, Weidong4; Li, Shicheng1; Zheng, Jingyun2,5
刊名SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
出版日期2021-12-17
页码14
关键词Population Traditional cultivated region of China (TCRC) Historical periods Gridded reconstruction
ISSN号1674-7313
DOI10.1007/s11430-020-9866-2
通讯作者Zheng, Jingyun(zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Using modern census and environmental factor data, this study first identified the environmental factors that significantly affect the population distribution through Geodetector analysis and then constructed a population spatial distribution model based on the random forest regression algorithm. Finally, with this model and historical population data that were examined and corrected by historians, gridded population distributions with a spatial resolution of 10 km by 10 km in the traditional cultivated region of China (TCRC, hereafter) were reconstructed for six time slices from 1776 to 1953. Using the reconstruction dataset, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the population distribution were depicted. The results showed that (1) the environmental factors that significantly affected the population density differences among counties in the TCRC mainly consisted of elevation, slope, relief amplitude, distances to the nearest prefectural and provincial capitals, distance to the nearest river and the climatology moisture index. (2) Using the census data of 1934 counties in the TCRC in 2000 and the above-mentioned environmental factor data, a random forest regression algorithm-based population spatial distribution model was constructed. Its determination coefficient (R-2) is 0.81. In 88.4% of the counties (districts), the relative errors of the model predictions were less than 50%. (3) From 1776 to 1953, the total population in the study area showed an uptrend. Prior to 1851, the population increased mainly in the Yangtze River Delta. During this period, the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km(2) increased from 292 to 683. From 1851 to 1953, the population increased extensively across the study area. In the North China Plain and the Pearl River Delta, the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km(2) increased from 36 to 88 and from 4 to 35, respectively. The spatial clustering pattern of the population distribution varied temporally. The potential reasons included the shifts in economic development hot spots, traditional beliefs, wars, famine, and immigration policies. (4) Between our reconstructions and the HYDE dataset, there are large differences in the data sources, selected environmental factors and modeling methods. As a consequence, in comparison to our reconstructions, there were fewer populations in the eastern area and more populations in the western area from 1776 to 1851 and more populations in urban areas and fewer populations in rural areas after 1851 in the HYDE dataset.
WOS关键词LAND-USE ; MIGRATION ; HOLOCENE ; DENSITY ; HISTORY
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040101] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0603301]
WOS研究方向Geology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000732500500001
出版者SCIENCE PRESS
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key Research and Development Program of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/168777]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zheng, Jingyun
作者单位1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Publ Adm, Dept Land Resource Management, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
4.Fudan Univ, Ctr Hist Geog Studies, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Xuezhen,Wang, Fahao,Lu, Weidong,et al. Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2021:14.
APA Zhang, Xuezhen,Wang, Fahao,Lu, Weidong,Li, Shicheng,&Zheng, Jingyun.(2021).Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,14.
MLA Zhang, Xuezhen,et al."Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES (2021):14.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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