Hotspots of Yield Loss for Four Crops of the Belt and Road Terrestrial Countries under 1.5 & DEG;C Global Warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tong, Miao1,2; Dai, Erfu1,2; Wu, Chunsheng1,2 |
| 刊名 | LAND
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:2页码:12 |
| 关键词 | the Belt and Road global warming 1.5 degrees C crops yield hotspots likelihood ISI-MIP |
| DOI | 10.3390/land11020163 |
| 通讯作者 | Dai, Erfu(wucs@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) shows that climate change poses severe risks to the Belt and Road region and could cut future crop production. Identifying the positions and features of hotspots, which refer to regions with severe yield loss at 1.5 & DEG;C global warming, is the key to developing proper mitigation and adaptation policies to ensure regional food security. This study examined yield loss hotspots of four crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat) at 1.5 & DEG;C global warming under RCP8.5. Yield data were derived from simulations of multiple climate-crop model ensembles from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Hotspots were identified by setting a threshold of the 10th percentile of crop yields during the reference period (1986-2005). To quantify the likelihood of crop yield loss hotspots within multi-model ensembles, the agreement of model combinations for hotspots was calculated for each crop at the grid scale with 0.5 & DEG; x 0.5 & DEG; spatial resolution. Results revealed spatial heterogeneity of cultivation structure and hotspot likelihood for four crops. The four crops' production of SA (South Asia) and SEA (Southeast Asia) accounts for more than 40% of the total production in the Belt and Road region, roughly four times the amount produced in CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) and NEA (Northeast Asia). Besides, the hotspots likelihood of maize, rice and soybean is generally larger in SA/SEA than that in CEE/NEA which means the risk of yield reduction is higher in the current main agricultural area. According to IPCC's classification rules for likelihood, four crops' hotspot patterns were displayed under the 1.5 & DEG;C global warming. As the highest-yielding crop, maize shows the largest proportion of "likely " hotspots (hotspot likelihood > 66%), which is about 6.48%, accounting for more than four times that of the other three crops. In addition, four crops' hotspots are mainly distributed in SEA and SA. Overall, SEA and SA are vulnerable subregions and maize is the vulnerable crop of the Belt and Road region. Our results could provide information on target areas where mitigation or adaptations are needed to reduce the adverse influence of climate change in the agricultural system. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE HOTSPOTS ; MAIZE ; IMPACTS ; TRENDS |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2020YFA0608200] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFC1508805] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000773633300001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key R&D Program of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/173045]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Dai, Erfu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Lhasa Plateau Ecosyst Res Stn, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 |
Tong, Miao,Dai, Erfu,Wu, Chunsheng. Hotspots of Yield Loss for Four Crops of the Belt and Road Terrestrial Countries under 1.5 & DEG;C Global Warming [J]. LAND,2022,11(2):12. |
| APA |
Tong, Miao,Dai, Erfu,&Wu, Chunsheng.(2022). Hotspots of Yield Loss for Four Crops of the Belt and Road Terrestrial Countries under 1.5 & DEG;C Global Warming .LAND,11(2),12. |
| MLA |
Tong, Miao,et al." Hotspots of Yield Loss for Four Crops of the Belt and Road Terrestrial Countries under 1.5 & DEG;C Global Warming ".LAND 11.2(2022):12. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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