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Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Yang, Peng5; Zhang, Shengqing5; Xia, Jun2,5,6; Chen, Yaning4; Zhang, Yongyong6; Cai, Wei5; Wang, Wenyu5; Wang, Huaijun3; Luo, Xiangang5; Chen, Xi1
刊名JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
出版日期2022-03-01
卷号305页码:13
ISSN号0301-4797
关键词Vulnerability Risk assessment Central Asia Climate change Water resource system
DOI10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114394
通讯作者Yang, Peng(yangpenghb@foxmail.com) ; Xia, Jun(xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Chen, Yaning(chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn)
英文摘要As most of the runoff resulting from snow-ice melt is related to climate change factors in the arid region of northwest China, the risk to water resource systems threatens the socio-economic and ecological environment and is becoming increasingly prevalent. Therefore, we explored the risks of water resource shortages for different periods (2010, 2020, and 2030) in the Aksu River basin (ARB) in the northwest arid region of China by reconstructing a risk model based on the framework proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with an improved vulnerability (V) module and a more suitable hazard probability in the cost module. The major conclusions are as follows: (1) the simulation of the Community Land Model-Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (CLM-DTVGM) and the Vegetation Interface Processes model (VIP) was suitable for the ecohydrological processes in the ARB under climate change (i.e., R-2 >= 0.583; Nash coefficient >= 0.371; and relative mean standard <= 155.727 for CLM-DTVGM; R-2 = 0.798 for VIP); (2) the vulnerability of the water resource system in the ARB was medium in 2010, and dropped to a medium-low to non-vulnerable level in 2020 before increasing in 2030 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5); and (3) there was a medium-low risk of water resource shortages in the ARB in 2010 (i.e., 0.246), and although the risk of water resource shortages decreased in 2020 due to the increasing water supply from mountainous areas, the risk predicted to increase significantly in 2030, to a medium-high risk level. This study is critical for accurately predicting and understanding the impact of climate change on water resource systems as well as on the drought risk in arid regions.
WOS关键词TARIM RIVER ; ARID REGION ; SPATIAL VARIATIONS ; DROUGHT ; MODEL ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; VULNERABILITY ; MANAGEMENT ; PRECIPITATION ; PROBABILITY
资助项目Foundation: Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Science Research of the Ministry of Education[20YJCZH207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071041] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040302]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
出版者ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
WOS记录号WOS:000793855500003
资助机构Foundation: Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Science Research of the Ministry of Education ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/176610]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Chen, Yaning
作者单位1.Hubei Geol Survey, Wuhan 430030, Peoples R China
2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430000, Peoples R China
3.Huaiyin Normal Univ, Sch Urban & Environm Sci, Huaian 223300, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China
5.China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Yang, Peng,Zhang, Shengqing,Xia, Jun,et al. Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2022,305:13.
APA Yang, Peng.,Zhang, Shengqing.,Xia, Jun.,Chen, Yaning.,Zhang, Yongyong.,...&Chen, Xi.(2022).Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,305,13.
MLA Yang, Peng,et al."Risk assessment of water resource shortages in the Aksu River basin of northwest China under climate change".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 305(2022):13.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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