Evaluating potential impacts of land use changes on water supply-demand under multiple development scenarios in dryland region
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Xueqi1,2; Liu, Yansui2; Wang, Yongsheng2; Liu, Zhengjia2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 610页码:17 |
| 关键词 | Water supply-demand risk Future land use patterns Scenario analyses Mitigation strategies Dryland region |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127811 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yansui(liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Liu, Zhengjia(liuzj@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Water scarcity greatly hinders sustainable development goal agenda and regional agriculture development in dryland regions. As we know, land use and cover changes are strongly responsible for spatial-temporal evolutions of water resource. However, there is little explicit understanding of how spatial patterns of future dryland use will affect the water supply-demand risk. To answer this question, this study took Yulin city of China, a typical dryland region, as a case study area, and firstly estimated its 2020-2050 land use patterns under three different scenarios, covering Natural Increased Scenario (NIS), Food Security Scenario (FSS) and Economic Development Scenario (EDS), with the help of the path-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model as well as Markov-chain model. Furthermore, this study employed InVEST model to explicitly investigate spatial-temporal evolutions of water supply, water demand and water supply-demand risk in all scenarios. The estimated results indicated that the largest expanding/shrinking land use types were grasslands/croplands in NIS, croplands/ grasslands in FSS and built-up lands/croplands in EDS during 2020-2050, respectively. By 2050, all projected land use changes only slightly affected regional water supply (the fluctuation of - 5% compared to that in 2020), but greatly increased by - 57% regional water demand. Particularly, strong land use changes would likely put nearly 90% regions of Yulin city at endangered water supply-demand risk in 2020-2050. Ecological land and built-up land would easier suffer from critically endangered water supply-demand risk. In view of these modeled and analyzed results, some potential mitigation strategies of water resource utilization, such as developing waterefficient eco-agriculture, adjusting agricultural structures and enriching revegetation diversity, were suggested to coordinate future areal human-nature relationships. This study could provide some valuable information for dryland agricultural development, water-environment management and regional policy decision-making. |
| WOS关键词 | AGROPASTORAL TRANSITIONAL ZONE ; NORTHERN SHAANXI PROVINCE ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; CULTIVATED LAND ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LOESS PLATEAU ; CHINA ; MODEL ; PRODUCTIVITY ; SIMULATION |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41931293] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971218] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Science[XDA23070302] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000795137600003 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Science |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/177161]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yansui; Liu, Zhengjia |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Xueqi,Liu, Yansui,Wang, Yongsheng,et al. Evaluating potential impacts of land use changes on water supply-demand under multiple development scenarios in dryland region[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2022,610:17. |
| APA | Liu, Xueqi,Liu, Yansui,Wang, Yongsheng,&Liu, Zhengjia.(2022).Evaluating potential impacts of land use changes on water supply-demand under multiple development scenarios in dryland region.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,610,17. |
| MLA | Liu, Xueqi,et al."Evaluating potential impacts of land use changes on water supply-demand under multiple development scenarios in dryland region".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 610(2022):17. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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