Assessing influences of climate change on highland barley productivity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1978-2017
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Zemin1,2; Lu, Changhe1,2 |
| 刊名 | SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-05-10 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:1页码:13 |
| ISSN号 | 2045-2322 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41598-022-11711-w |
| 通讯作者 | Lu, Changhe(luch@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Grain production is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change globally. Highland barley (HB) is the most important cereal crop in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), so assessing HB productivity and its response to climate change could help to understand the capacity of grain production and food security. This study simulated the potential yield of HB annually at 72 meteorological stations for 1978-2017 using the WOFOST model, and then analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of HB potential yield and climatic factors in the growing season. Further, the influence of climate change on HB potential yield was explored in different temperature zones (TZ). Results indicate that the annual average of HB potential yield ranged from 3.5 to 8.1 t/ha in the QTP, and it was averaged at 6.5 t/ha in TZ-3, higher than other zones. From 1978 to 2017, HB potential yield for the whole QTP decreased slightly by 2.1 kg/ha per year, and its change rates were 23.9, 10.1, - 15.9, - 23.8 and - 16.7 kg/ha/year from TZ-1 to TZ-5 (p < 0.05), respectively. In all zones, average (Tave), maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) showed a significantly warming trend (p < 0.01), and Tmin increased by 0.53, 0.45, 0.44, 0.40 and 0.69 degrees C per decade, higher than that of Tave and Tmax. However, temperature diurnal range (TDR) and radiation (RA) showed a downward trend, and their decrease rates were far higher in TZ-5 and TZ-3. In TZ-1, Delta TDR was the critical factor to the change in HB potential yield, which would increase by 420.30 kg/ha for 1 degrees C increase of Delta TDR (p < 0.01). From TZ-2 to TZ-5, Delta RA was the critical factor, but the influence amplitude in terms of the elastic coefficient, decreased from 4.08 to 0.99 (p < 0.01). In addition, other factors such as Delta Tmax in TZ-3 and Delta Tmin in TZ-4 and TZ-5 also had an important influence on the potential yield. To improve the HB productivity in the QTP, suitable varieties should be developed and introduced to adapt the climate warming in different temperature zones. In addition, efforts are needed to adjust the strategies of fertilizers and irrigation applications. |
| WOS关键词 | SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIATIONS ; PAST 3 DECADES ; YIELD GAPS ; WINTER-WHEAT ; MAIZE YIELD ; PRODUCTION POTENTIALS ; SUMMER MAIZE ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040301] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0604701] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42101266] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000793383600043 |
| 出版者 | NATURE PORTFOLIO |
| 资助机构 | Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/177548]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Lu, Changhe |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Zemin,Lu, Changhe. Assessing influences of climate change on highland barley productivity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1978-2017[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2022,12(1):13. |
| APA | Zhang, Zemin,&Lu, Changhe.(2022).Assessing influences of climate change on highland barley productivity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1978-2017.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,12(1),13. |
| MLA | Zhang, Zemin,et al."Assessing influences of climate change on highland barley productivity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1978-2017".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 12.1(2022):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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