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Quantifying the influence of climate variability on armed conflict in Africa, 2000-2015

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Qian1,4; Hao, Mengmeng1,4; Helman, David2,3; Ding, Fangyu1,4; Jiang, Dong1,4; Xie, Xiaolan1,4; Chen, Shuai1,4; Ma, Tian1,4
刊名ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
出版日期2022-06-07
页码18
关键词Climate variability Armed conflicts Africa Generalized Additive Model
ISSN号1387-585X
DOI10.1007/s10668-022-02436-x
通讯作者Ding, Fangyu(dingfy@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Jiang, Dong(jiangd@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Global climate change, expected to be one of the most severe challenges that human beings have ever encountered, has had far-reaching impacts on ecosystems and humans, among which the potentially increasing chance of violent conflict has raised attention recently. However, several years of research have produced no consensus regarding whether climate variability affects the risk of armed conflict and how it may affect conflict. In this study, we built a geographically disaggregated method to explore the relationship between climate variability from normal climate conditions and armed conflicts both on a local and regional scale. With the 10,993 conflict records acquired in 25 African countries over 16 years from 2000 to 2015, we estimated the effects of temperature and wet day variability on conflicts in agricultural and non-agricultural areas, respectively, on gridded 1 degrees resolution. The results showed that deviations from the normal climate have a systematical impact on the risk of conflict: The risk of violence rises with increasing deviations from the temperature norms in both non-agricultural and agricultural areas. Regarding the rainfall variability, in non-agricultural areas, the risk of violence grows with increasing anomalous wet days, either more or fewer days than the annual average, while in agricultural areas, increases in violence risk only exhibit under the impact of fewer wet days than the annual average. We expect these findings would provide empirical support for policymakers and relevant organizations who need to prepare additional law enforcement and/or peacekeeping resources when climatic anomalies are detected.
WOS关键词ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; POLITICAL VIOLENCE ; CIVIL-WAR ; TEMPERATURE ; SCARCITY ; IMPACT ; VULNERABILITY ; PRESSURE ; SUPPORT ; RISK
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42001238] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040305]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000807288500001
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/178758]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Ding, Fangyu; Jiang, Dong
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
2.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Robert H Smith Fac Agr Food & Environm, Inst Environm Sci, Dept Soil & Water Sci, IL-7610001 Rehovot, Israel
3.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Adv Sch Environm Studies, Jerusalem, Israel
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Qian,Hao, Mengmeng,Helman, David,et al. Quantifying the influence of climate variability on armed conflict in Africa, 2000-2015[J]. ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,2022:18.
APA Wang, Qian.,Hao, Mengmeng.,Helman, David.,Ding, Fangyu.,Jiang, Dong.,...&Ma, Tian.(2022).Quantifying the influence of climate variability on armed conflict in Africa, 2000-2015.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,18.
MLA Wang, Qian,et al."Quantifying the influence of climate variability on armed conflict in Africa, 2000-2015".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY (2022):18.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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