A dynamic disastrous CGE model to optimize resource allocation in post-disaster economic recovery: post-typhoon in an urban agglomeration area, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Hongwei1,2; Xu, Erqi2; Zhang, Hongqi2; Zhong, Shuai1,3,4 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 17期号:7页码:22 |
| 关键词 | dynamic disastrous computable general equilibrium (CGE) model post-disaster recovery resources allocation schemes Super Typhoon Mangkhut Guangdong Province China |
| ISSN号 | 1748-9326 |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7733 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Erqi(xueq@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Optimizing the allocation schemes of post-disaster recovery resources can promote the sustainable development of a regional economy. However, previous studies determined the inputs and allocation schemes of recovery resources based on direct economic (DE) loss while neglecting indirect economic (IDE) loss, which restricted economic recovery. This study considered DE and IDE loss, and used a dynamic disastrous computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate multiple scenarios with different inputs and allocation schemes to identify a better economic recovery strategy. Taking Super Typhoon Mangkhut's landing in Guangdong Province in 2018 as an example, the results showed that the IDE loss had a long-term impact and dynamic accumulation without post-disaster recovery, reaching 15.25 times the DE loss by 2022. In the baseline scenario, the recovery resource inputs, including relief funds, reconstruction funds, and natural disaster commercial insurance, were limited, leading to a cumulative loss recovery rate of less than 2% in 2018-2022. According to our findings, recovery resources needed a 15-fold increase to recover to pre-disaster levels. Considering the impacts of sector connections on IDE loss, six allocation schemes were established based on DE loss, IDE loss, and industrial structure. Compared with the typical allocation scheme based on DE loss, allocating recovery resources according to the diffusion coefficient substantially improved the loss recovery rate and recovery resource utilization efficiency. The dynamic disastrous CGE model conducted multi-scenario simulations to identify the optimal recovery resource allocation scheme that supported rapid and efficient post-disaster economic recovery. |
| WOS关键词 | GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-ANALYSIS ; INPUT-OUTPUT ; STRATEGIC INTERACTION ; NATURAL DISASTERS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LOS-ANGELES ; IMPACTS ; RESILIENCE ; INSURANCE ; RISK |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFC1503003] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFC1508801] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2021052] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000820468000001 |
| 出版者 | IOP Publishing Ltd |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Program of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/180251]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Erqi |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Resource Use & Environm Remediat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Carrying Capac Assessment Resource & Envi, Beijing 101149, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Hongwei,Xu, Erqi,Zhang, Hongqi,et al. A dynamic disastrous CGE model to optimize resource allocation in post-disaster economic recovery: post-typhoon in an urban agglomeration area, China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2022,17(7):22. |
| APA | Li, Hongwei,Xu, Erqi,Zhang, Hongqi,&Zhong, Shuai.(2022).A dynamic disastrous CGE model to optimize resource allocation in post-disaster economic recovery: post-typhoon in an urban agglomeration area, China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,17(7),22. |
| MLA | Li, Hongwei,et al."A dynamic disastrous CGE model to optimize resource allocation in post-disaster economic recovery: post-typhoon in an urban agglomeration area, China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 17.7(2022):22. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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