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Predicting the Geographical Distribution of Malaria-Associated Anopheles dirus in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions Under Climate Change Scenarios

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Xin1,2; Song, Chao3,4,5,6; Ren, Zhoupeng2; Wang, Shaobin2
刊名FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
出版日期2022-06-16
卷号10页码:13
关键词climate change land-use change geographical distribution random forest South-East Asia Western Pacific An dirus
DOI10.3389/fenvs.2022.841966
通讯作者Ren, Zhoupeng(renzp@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要Malaria occurrence is highly related to the geographical distribution of Anopheles dirus (An. dirus) in the South-East Asia Region and Western Pacific Region (SEAR/WPR). Future climate change has been shown to alter the geographical distribution of malaria vectors. However, few studies have investigated the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of An. dirus in the SEAR/WPR. We considered future climate and land-use data under two climate change scenarios for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and population data from five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), by using three machine learning models, namely, Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Maximum entropy (Maxent) to project the geographical distribution of An. Dirus and to estimate the exposed population. A pseudo-absence dataset was generated based on the relationships between model performance and the distance from the pseudo-absence point to the occurrence point in order to improve model accuracy for projection of the Environmentally Suitable Area (ESA) and exposed human population. The results show that the pseudo-absence data corresponding to the distance of 250 km are appropriate for modeling. The RF method ultimately proved to have the highest accuracy. The predicted ESA of An. dirus would mainly be distributed across Myanmar, Thailand, the southern and eastern part of India, Vietnam, the northern part of Cambodia, and the southern part of Laos. The future ESA is estimated to be reduced under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario. In the 2070s under RCP 8.5, the reduction of ESA is even greater, especially in Thailand (loss of 35.49 10,000 square kilometers), Myanmar (26.24), Vietnam (17.52), and India (15), which may prevent around 282.6 million people from the risk of malaria under the SSP3 scenarios in the SEAR/WPR. Our predicted areas and potential impact groups for An. dirus under future climate change may provide new insights into regional malaria transmission mechanisms and deployment of malaria control measures based on local conditions in the SEAR/WPR's.
WOS关键词SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; SELECTION ; RESOLUTION ; ABSENCES ; MAXENT ; FOREST ; RARE ; AREA
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071377] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071379] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20030302] ; Medical Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Health Commission[21PJ067] ; Fund for Introducing Talents of Sichuan University[YJ202157]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000819138000001
出版者FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Medical Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Health Commission ; Fund for Introducing Talents of Sichuan University
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/180884]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Ren, Zhoupeng
作者单位1.Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, Chengdu, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Sichuan Univ, West China Res Ctr Rural Hlth Dev, Chengdu, Peoples R China
4.Sichuan Univ, West China Sch Publ Hlth, HEOA Grp, Chengdu, Peoples R China
5.Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp 4, Chengdu, Peoples R China
6.Sichuan Univ, Inst Hlth Cities, Chengdu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Xin,Song, Chao,Ren, Zhoupeng,et al. Predicting the Geographical Distribution of Malaria-Associated Anopheles dirus in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions Under Climate Change Scenarios[J]. FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,2022,10:13.
APA Liu, Xin,Song, Chao,Ren, Zhoupeng,&Wang, Shaobin.(2022).Predicting the Geographical Distribution of Malaria-Associated Anopheles dirus in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions Under Climate Change Scenarios.FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,10,13.
MLA Liu, Xin,et al."Predicting the Geographical Distribution of Malaria-Associated Anopheles dirus in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions Under Climate Change Scenarios".FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE 10(2022):13.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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