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Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Ding, Fangyu7,8; Wang, Qian5,6; Hao, Mengmeng7,8; Maude, Richard James4,5,6; Day, Nicholas Philip John5,6; Lai, Shengjie2; Chen, Shuai7,8; Fang, Liqun3; Ma, Tian7,8; Zheng, Canjun1
刊名GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
出版日期2022-09-02
页码11
关键词climate change impacts public health scrub typhus spatiotemporal dynamic vector-borne disease
ISSN号1354-1013
DOI10.1111/gcb.16395
通讯作者Ma, Tian(mat.19b@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Zheng, Canjun(zhengcj@chinacdc.cn) ; Jiang, Dong(jiangd@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Scrub typhus is a climate-sensitive and life-threatening vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. Although the climate-epidemic associations of many vector-borne diseases have been studied for decades, the impacts of climate on scrub typhus remain poorly understood, especially in the context of global warming. Here we incorporate Chinese national surveillance data on scrub typhus from 2010 to 2019 into a climate-driven generalized additive mixed model to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of this disease and predict how it may be affected by climate change under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). Our results demonstrate that temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity play key roles in driving the seasonal epidemic of scrub typhus in mainland China with a 2-month lag. Our findings show that the change of projected spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus will be heterogeneous and will depend on specific combinations of regional climate conditions in future climate scenarios. Our results contribute to a better understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus, which can help public health authorities refine their prevention and control measures to reduce the risks resulting from climate change.
WOS关键词ORIENTIA-TSUTSUGAMUSHI ; METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ; VECTOR ; DISEASES ; IMPACT ; LAOS
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040305] ; Wellcome Trust[220211]
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000849597900001
出版者WILEY
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Wellcome Trust
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/182024]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Ma, Tian; Zheng, Canjun; Jiang, Dong
作者单位1.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Southampton, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, WorldPop, Southampton, Hants, England
3.Beijing Inst Microbiol & Epidemiol, State Key Lab Pathogen & Biosecur, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Harvard Univ, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USA
5.Mahidol Univ, Fac Trop Med, Mahidol Oxford Trop Med Res Unit, Bangkok, Thailand
6.Univ Oxford, Ctr Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nuffield Dept Med, Oxford, England
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
8.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Ding, Fangyu,Wang, Qian,Hao, Mengmeng,et al. Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2022:11.
APA Ding, Fangyu.,Wang, Qian.,Hao, Mengmeng.,Maude, Richard James.,Day, Nicholas Philip John.,...&Jiang, Dong.(2022).Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,11.
MLA Ding, Fangyu,et al."Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY (2022):11.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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