Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Jin, Gui2,3; Chen, Kun2; Wang, Pei3; Guo, Baishu2; Dong, Yin1; Yang, Jun4 |
| 刊名 | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 141页码:36-46 |
| 关键词 | Land-use competition and trade-offs Scenarios Simulation CGELUC model DLS model North China Plain |
| ISSN号 | 0040-1625 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.01.004 |
| 英文摘要 | Using the Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change (CGELUC) and Dynamics of Land System (DLS) models, we simulated land-use structures and patterns in Shandong Province in 2025 under three scenarios: baseline, resource consumption, and green development. Compared with the situation in 2015, a slight decrease in grassland, cultivated, and unused land was evident under the green development scenario. Forest land cover remained basically unchanged, whereas water bodies and construction land increased slightly. Under the baseline and resource consumption scenarios, all of the above land-use types showed a decreasing trend apart from construction land, which rapidly increased. Changes in the land-use allocation pattern demonstrated overall consistency and local differences under these scenarios. Among them, most changes in construction and cultivated land occurred around cities, with changes in forests and grassland mainly distributed in the central and northeastern regions. Changes in water bodies and unused land mainly occurred in the northern Yellow River basin and in northeastern coastal areas. Local differences were evident under the green development scenario, with conversion of a small amount of cultivated land in the central region into forests and grassland, and transformation of a small area of cultivated land in the northeastern coastal area into water bodies. The study's findings provide a scientific projection of competitive land-use relations in Shandong Province over the next decade under different land expropriation price and regulation scenarios, which can guide policy formulation and the selection of pathways for achieving sustainable regional development. |
| WOS关键词 | USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; URBAN EXPANSION ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; URBANIZATION ; EFFICIENCY |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771568] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71533004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41501593] |
| WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Public Administration |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000460990700004 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49293]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Publ Adm, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China 2.Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Ocean Sci, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jin, Gui,Chen, Kun,Wang, Pei,et al. Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2019,141:36-46. |
| APA | Jin, Gui,Chen, Kun,Wang, Pei,Guo, Baishu,Dong, Yin,&Yang, Jun.(2019).Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,141,36-46. |
| MLA | Jin, Gui,et al."Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 141(2019):36-46. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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