Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xu, Chenchen1,2,3; Wu, Wenxiang1,2; Ge, Quansheng1,2 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-06-15 |
| 卷号 | 38期号:7页码:2922-2939 |
| 关键词 | climate change impact assessment ORYZA v3 model rice yield the Sichuan Basin of China |
| ISSN号 | 0899-8418 |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.5473 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu, Wenxiang(wuwx@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Understanding how different climate factors interact and impact rice yield is essential for effective agricultural management strategies and policies. However, the potential impacts are less clear at the regional scale. In this work, we used the latest version of the ORYZA crop model to evaluate the impacts of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin of China based on high-quality agricultural experimental, meteorological and soil data and the incorporation of future climate data generated by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three newly released representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Considering climate change alone, our modelling results indicated a continuing rice reduction for most stations by 2-17, 4-28 and 1-43% under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively; when considering the CO2 fertilizer effect, rice yields increased by 3-10, 4-13 and 5-20% under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, for most stations, the CO2 fertilizer effect could not completely offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. In addition, temperature and radiation were the main climate factors that cause yield variation by affecting the rice maturity periods (DAE), spikelet fertility factor (SPFERT) and spikelet number (NSP). The uncertainty arising from the climate models was less than 10% under the RCP2.6 scenario, 15% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 20% under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating good consistency in rice yield simulations. These findings offer insight into the physiological mechanisms and the degree of climate change impacts on rice yields, thus informing appropriate adaptive strategies for rice planting in the Sichuan Basin, China. |
| WOS关键词 | WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; ELEVATED CO2 ; NITROGEN ; SIMULATION ; CULTIVARS ; STRESS ; NORTH ; INDIA ; STABILIZATION ; PRODUCTIVITY |
| 资助项目 | Ministry of Science and Technology of the people's Republic of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[TSYSJ04] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000439792300002 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 资助机构 | Ministry of Science and Technology of the people's Republic of China ; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54546]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu, Wenxiang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xu, Chenchen,Wu, Wenxiang,Ge, Quansheng. Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(7):2922-2939. |
| APA | Xu, Chenchen,Wu, Wenxiang,&Ge, Quansheng.(2018).Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(7),2922-2939. |
| MLA | Xu, Chenchen,et al."Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.7(2018):2922-2939. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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