Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Fang3; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.1; Zhang, Jintao2; Ge, Quansheng2; Hao, Zhixin2; Zhang, Xuezhen2; Wu, Maowei2 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018 |
| 页码 | 9 |
| ISSN号 | 1687-9309 |
| DOI | 10.1155/2018/2487962 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | To limit global warming to well below 2 degrees C in accord with the Paris Agreement, countries throughout the world have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the next few decades. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change is in response to the proposed INDCs and subsequent emission reductions. In this study, the global and regional warming under the updated INDC scenarios was estimated from a range of comprehensive Earth system models (CMIP5) and a simpler carbon-climate model (MAGICC), based on the relationship of climate response to cumulative emissions.) The global GHG emissions under the updated INDC pledges are estimated to reach 14.2 similar to 15.0 GtC/year in 2030, resulting in a global mean temperature increase of 1.29 similar to 1.55 degrees C (median of 1.41 degrees C)above the preindustrial level. By extending the INDC scenarios to 2100, global GHG emissions are estimated to be around 6.4 similar to 9.0 GtC/year in 2100, resulting in a global mean temperature increase by 2.67 similar to 3.74 degrees C (median of 3.17 degrees C). The Arctic warming is projected to be most profound, exceeding the global average by a factor of three by the end of this century.) us, climate warming under INDC scenarios is projected to greatly exceed the long-term Paris Agreement goal of stabilizing the global mean temperature at to a low level of 1.5-2.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial. Our study suggests that the INDC emission commitments need to be adjusted and strengthened to bridge this warming gap. |
| WOS关键词 | 2 DEGREES-C ; CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS ; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ; SIMPLER MODEL ; CYCLE MODELS ; SCENARIOS ; POLICY ; CMIP5 |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602704] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771050] ; CAS Key Project[KJZD-EW-TZ-G10] ; Ministry of Science and Technology |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000432777100001 |
| 出版者 | HINDAWI LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; CAS Key Project ; Ministry of Science and Technology |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54908]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, 3800 Finnerty Rd, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Dept Climate & Environm Change, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Dept Climate & Environm Change, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Fang,Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,Zhang, Jintao,et al. Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement[J]. ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY,2018:9. |
| APA | Wang, Fang.,Tokarska, Katarzyna B..,Zhang, Jintao.,Ge, Quansheng.,Hao, Zhixin.,...&Wu, Maowei.(2018).Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement.ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY,9. |
| MLA | Wang, Fang,et al."Climate Warming in Response to Emission Reductions Consistent with the Paris Agreement".ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY (2018):9. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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