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Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Feng, Aiqing2,3; Gao, Jiangbo3; Wu, Shaohong1,3; Liu, Lulu1,3; Li, Yanzhong4; Yue, Xiliu1,3
刊名GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK
出版日期2018
卷号9期号:1页码:456-470
关键词Sea-level rise inundation risk extreme water level expected direct losses affected population and GDP recurrence period
ISSN号1947-5705
DOI10.1080/19475705.2018.1447026
通讯作者Wu, Shaohong(wush@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Driven by global climate change, sea-level rise would exacerbate the hazard of extreme water level as a disaster-inducing factor. Based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, this study explored the inundation risk of extreme water levels under climate change and Rongcheng was a case study. Pearson Type III (P-III) distribution was used for refitting recurrence periods of extreme water level. Expected losses exposed to extreme water levels were assessed through inundated area and depth per-unit loss values and vulnerability curves of land-use types. Results indicated that sea-level rise significantly shortened recurrence period in 2050 and 2100, which suggested a higher frequency of extreme water level in future. A large increase in expected direct losses would reach an average of 60% with a 0.82-m sea-level rise (under RCP 8.5) in 2100. Moreover, affected population and gross domestic product would grow 4.95% to 13.87% and 3.66% to 10.95% in 2050, respectively, while the increment in 2100 would be twice. Residential land and farmland were demonstrated as at greater inundation risk because of higher exposure and losses. Consequently, the intensifying hazard and the increase in possible losses suggested that sea-level rise would exacerbate future inundation risk in coastal region.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FLOOD RISK ; STORM-SURGE ; COASTAL ZONES ; TIDE ; IMPACTS ; SCENARIOS ; EXPOSURE ; CITIES
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671098] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41775081] ; Clean Development Mechanism Funding Projects of China[2013034]
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000430045400001
出版者TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Clean Development Mechanism Funding Projects of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/57278]  
专题陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Wu, Shaohong
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Coll Hydrometeorol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,Wu, Shaohong,et al. Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China[J]. GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK,2018,9(1):456-470.
APA Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,Wu, Shaohong,Liu, Lulu,Li, Yanzhong,&Yue, Xiliu.(2018).Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China.GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK,9(1),456-470.
MLA Feng, Aiqing,et al."Assessing the inundation risk resulting from extreme water levels under sea-level rise: a case study of Rongcheng, China".GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK 9.1(2018):456-470.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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